generated from coulomb/repo-seed
Complete Economic Observatory MVP (ADAPTIVE-WP-0002)
Add file-based Bubble, Stripe, and OpenRouter importers; usage attribution, cost allocation, pricing simulator, credit wallets, and recommendations in the dashboard API. Document whynot-design UI workflow and archive the finished workplan with all ten tasks marked done.
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@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ type: workplan
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title: "Economic Observatory MVP (Coulomb Social)"
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domain: helix_forge
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repo: adaptive-pricing
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status: active
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status: finished
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owner: codex
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topic_slug: helix-forge
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created: "2026-06-21"
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@@ -52,33 +52,6 @@ model registry.
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**Excluded:** dynamic pricing, automated price changes, customer-tunable pricing,
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advanced LTV optimization, marketplace pricing.
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### Architecture
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```text
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Bubble.io
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+-- Membership Data
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Stripe
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+-- Revenue Data
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+-- Fee Data
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OpenRouter
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+-- Usage Data
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+-- Cost Data
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Adaptive Pricing MVP
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+-- Cost Registry
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+-- Revenue Registry
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+-- Usage Registry
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+-- Cost Allocation Engine
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+-- Pricing Simulator
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+-- Reporting Dashboard
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```
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### Success Criteria
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The MVP is successful when it can:
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@@ -91,20 +64,9 @@ The MVP is successful when it can:
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- Explain economic outcomes
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- Produce pricing recommendations
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### Future Phases
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| Phase | Focus |
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|-------|-------|
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| Phase 2 | Customer-visible AI credits |
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| Phase 3 | Usage-based billing |
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| Phase 4 | Customer-tunable pricing |
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| Phase 5 | Constraint-based pricing solver |
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| Phase 6 | Auto-Regulating Market Value Exploring Price Engine |
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The MVP should establish a data-driven foundation for pricing decisions and
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generate the real-world observations necessary to evolve toward adaptive pricing,
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customer-tunable pricing, and ultimately an auto-regulating market value
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exploration engine.
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**Completed 2026-06-22** via ledger-backed economics engine, web UI, file-based
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importers (Bubble / Stripe / OpenRouter), pricing simulator, credit wallets, and
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recommendation engine under `projects/coulomb-pricing/observatory/`.
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## Sprint 1 — Economic Foundations
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@@ -117,14 +79,6 @@ state_hub_task_id: "fac96369-a037-4b7e-a1ed-92659bce7e4e"
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Create the core economic model.
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**Deliverables:** product model, pricing model registry, cost registry, revenue
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registry, membership registry.
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**Metrics:** monthly revenue, monthly cost, cost per member, gross margin, active
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members.
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**Output:** Economics Dashboard v1.
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Done 2026-06-21: `projects/coulomb-pricing/observatory/` with JSON registries
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under `data/`, economics snapshot engine, CLI dashboard (`python3 -m
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observatory`), sample report `reports/economics-2026-06.md`, and pytest suite.
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@@ -133,123 +87,125 @@ observatory`), sample report `reports/economics-2026-06.md`, and pytest suite.
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T02
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status: todo
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status: done
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priority: high
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state_hub_task_id: "42c181f9-9f4e-414e-aa94-b08c763abdef"
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```
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Import membership information.
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**Deliverables:** Bubble membership importer, membership snapshots, active member
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tracking, historical growth tracking.
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**Metrics:** total members, new members, churn, growth rate.
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**Output:** Membership Analytics Dashboard.
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Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/importers/bubble.py` (JSON export →
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`membership.json`), `membership_analytics` in dashboard API, sample export under
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`data/imports/bubble-export.sample.json`.
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## Sprint 3 — Stripe Integration
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T03
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status: wait
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status: done
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priority: high
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state_hub_task_id: "c7e308bc-5977-40c8-985a-9dca2ad3984a"
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```
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Capture actual revenue and payment costs.
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**Deliverables:** Stripe synchronization, revenue tracking, fee tracking, refund
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tracking.
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**Metrics:** net revenue, Stripe fees, revenue per member.
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**Output:** Revenue Dashboard.
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Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/importers/stripe.py` (charge export →
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`payment_records.json`); live ledger already holds tegwick Stripe payments.
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## Sprint 4 — OpenRouter Cost Attribution
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T04
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status: wait
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status: done
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priority: high
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state_hub_task_id: "b2b61910-429c-46e9-93b8-25702ca337a7"
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```
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Track AI usage and cost.
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**Deliverables:** OpenRouter usage importer, cost attribution per user,
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model-level cost tracking, token accounting.
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**Metrics:** cost per user, cost per model, total AI spend.
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**Output:** AI Cost Dashboard.
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Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/importers/openrouter.py`, `data/usage_records.json`,
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`observatory/usage.py` (per-member and per-model attribution in API).
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## Sprint 5 — Cost Allocation Engine
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T05
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status: wait
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status: done
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priority: medium
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state_hub_task_id: "906009be-5670-428a-b6d1-2700c67e9c65"
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```
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Calculate economic reality.
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**Deliverables:**
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- Fixed cost allocation (Bubble.io, domains, infrastructure)
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- Variable cost allocation (Stripe fees, OpenRouter costs)
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- CostFloor, contribution margin, cost per member calculations
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**Output:** CostFloor Report.
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Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/allocation.py` — fixed/variable split, cost floor,
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contribution margin in `/api/dashboard` (`cost_allocation`).
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## Sprint 6 — Pricing Simulator
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T06
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status: wait
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status: done
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priority: medium
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state_hub_task_id: "cb735e7d-72ac-41df-97d4-e0133cb4bb84"
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```
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Evaluate pricing scenarios.
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**Example scenarios:**
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- Current: €8.99/month, unlimited access
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- Membership + credits: €8.99/month with included AI allowance
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- Membership + overage: €8.99/month with included credits and usage-based overage
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- Lower subscription: lower base fee with higher usage fees
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**Output:** Pricing Explorer.
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Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/simulator.py` compares active and candidate models
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from `pricing-models.json` (`pricing_simulations` in API).
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## Sprint 7 — Membership Credit System
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T07
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status: wait
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status: done
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priority: medium
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state_hub_task_id: "aa8efb52-dbd8-4309-a15d-ea04d80c57f6"
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```
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Introduce AI credit accounting without billing.
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**Deliverables:** credit wallet, monthly allowance, usage tracking, remaining
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balance tracking.
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**Output:** Member Usage Dashboard.
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Done 2026-06-22: `data/credit_wallets.json`, `observatory/credits.py`
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(observatory-only wallet balances in API).
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## Sprint 8 — Adaptive Pricing Prototype
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T08
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status: wait
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status: done
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priority: low
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state_hub_task_id: "d8195bf0-5b0d-4fbd-9776-0b619097c64f"
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```
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Implement first pricing optimization logic.
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**Deliverables:** pricing parameter model, constraint model, seller economics
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model, comparable customer LTV prototype, pricing recommendation engine.
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Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/recommendations.py` — rules-based recommendations
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from cost floor, value range, market signals, and simulator output.
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**Output:** Adaptive Pricing Prototype v1.
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## Economic Observatory Web UI
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T09
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status: done
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priority: high
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state_hub_task_id: "cfcfa53d-8e7d-464f-977c-d146dd252c35"
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```
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Whynot-design UI with ledger-backed API.
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Done 2026-06-22: `ui/` + `observatory/server.py`, whynot-design vendor sync,
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`docs/UI-WORKFLOW.md`. Three panels: Cost Floor, Value Range, Market Price.
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## Pricing Context Views
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T10
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status: done
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priority: medium
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state_hub_task_id: "563cbded-ad2a-4ee8-8779-18f7e55970df"
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```
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Cost floor, value range, and market price observatory views.
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Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/pricing_context.py`, `data/value_range.json`,
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`data/market_signals.json`, wired into UI and API.
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