Implement comparable LTV engine and close WP-0005

This commit is contained in:
codex
2026-07-02 22:50:16 +02:00
parent 656bbb81a5
commit 386c8a46fe
13 changed files with 1060 additions and 68 deletions

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{
"version": 1,
"currency": "EUR",
"horizon_months": 24,
"monthly_discount_rate_pct": "1.0",
"required_improvement_factor": "1.05",
"profiles": [
{
"id": "solo-builder",
"name": "Solo builder",
"segment": "coulomb-social-members",
"eligible_model_ids": [
"flat-899-eur-monthly",
"membership-plus-credits",
"membership-plus-overage"
],
"members_per_customer": 1,
"expected_monthly_usage_units": "48200",
"usage_variance_pct": "20",
"monthly_churn_pct": "6.0",
"monthly_default_pct": "1.0",
"monthly_support_cost": "0.25",
"monthly_risk_cost": "0.10",
"acquisition_cost": "2.00",
"upfront_investment_cost": "0.00",
"allocated_fixed_cost": "5.00",
"notes": "Calibrated from the current founding-member usage record and payment ledger."
},
{
"id": "small-team",
"name": "Small product team",
"segment": "coulomb-social-members",
"eligible_model_ids": [
"flat-899-eur-monthly",
"membership-plus-credits",
"membership-plus-overage"
],
"members_per_customer": 3,
"expected_monthly_usage_units": "180000",
"usage_variance_pct": "35",
"monthly_churn_pct": "3.5",
"monthly_default_pct": "1.0",
"monthly_support_cost": "1.50",
"monthly_risk_cost": "0.20",
"acquisition_cost": "8.00",
"upfront_investment_cost": "1.50",
"allocated_fixed_cost": "12.00",
"notes": "Hypothesis scenario for a higher-usage small team considering a multi-seat relationship."
}
],
"sensitivity_cases": [
{
"id": "usage-downside",
"name": "Usage downside",
"usage_multiplier": "0.75",
"monthly_churn_delta_pct": "1.5",
"monthly_risk_cost_delta": "0.05"
},
{
"id": "usage-upside",
"name": "Usage upside",
"usage_multiplier": "1.35",
"usage_variance_delta_pct": "10.0"
},
{
"id": "risk-spike",
"name": "Risk spike",
"usage_multiplier": "1.00",
"monthly_churn_delta_pct": "3.0",
"monthly_default_delta_pct": "1.0",
"monthly_support_cost_delta": "0.25",
"monthly_risk_cost_delta": "0.20"
}
],
"notes": "First-pass comparable-customer LTV assumptions for the Coulomb observatory. These scenarios are meant for simulation and comparison, not billing execution."
}