Implement comparable LTV engine and close WP-0005

adaptive_pricing_core/__init__.py

@@ -7,6 +7,19 @@ from .boundary_engine import (
     default_commitment_terms,
     validate_pricing_configuration,
 )
+from .comparable_ltv import (
+    ComparableCustomerProfile,
+    ComparableLTVEstimate,
+    LTVPolicy,
+    PricingComparison,
+    PricingModelComparison,
+    SensitivityCase,
+    SensitivityOutcome,
+    compare_pricing_configurations,
+    default_sensitivity_cases,
+    estimate_comparable_customer_ltv,
+    select_reference_estimate,
+)
 from .pricing_models import (
     ChargeComponent,
     Commitment,
@@ -21,16 +34,27 @@ from .pricing_models import (
 __all__ = [
     "BoundaryPolicy",
     "ChargeComponent",
+    "ComparableCustomerProfile",
+    "ComparableLTVEstimate",
     "Commitment",
     "CommitmentTerms",
     "ConstraintResult",
+    "LTVPolicy",
     "PricingModel",
+    "PricingComparison",
+    "PricingModelComparison",
     "PricingModelStatus",
     "PricingConfiguration",
+    "SensitivityCase",
+    "SensitivityOutcome",
     "TunableParameter",
     "ValidationResult",
+    "compare_pricing_configurations",
+    "default_sensitivity_cases",
     "default_commitment_terms",
+    "estimate_comparable_customer_ltv",
     "load_pricing_models",
+    "select_reference_estimate",
     "validate_pricing_configuration",
     "validate_pricing_catalog",
     "validate_pricing_model",

adaptive_pricing_core/comparable_ltv.py

@@ -0,0 +1,496 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from dataclasses import dataclass, field, replace
+from decimal import Decimal, ROUND_HALF_UP
+from typing import Any
+
+from .boundary_engine import (
+    BoundaryPolicy,
+    PricingConfiguration,
+    ValidationResult,
+    validate_pricing_configuration,
+)
+
+TWOPLACES = Decimal("0.01")
+PCTPLACES = Decimal("0.1")
+
+
+def _money(value: Decimal) -> Decimal:
+    return value.quantize(TWOPLACES, rounding=ROUND_HALF_UP)
+
+
+def _percent(value: Decimal) -> Decimal:
+    return value.quantize(PCTPLACES, rounding=ROUND_HALF_UP)
+
+
+def _decimal(value: Decimal | str | int | float | None) -> Decimal:
+    if value in (None, ""):
+        return Decimal("0")
+    return Decimal(str(value))
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class ComparableCustomerProfile:
+    id: str
+    name: str
+    segment: str
+    eligible_model_ids: tuple[str, ...] = ()
+    members_per_customer: int = 1
+    expected_monthly_usage_units: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    usage_variance_pct: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    monthly_churn_pct: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    monthly_default_pct: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    monthly_support_cost: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    monthly_risk_cost: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    acquisition_cost: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    upfront_investment_cost: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    allocated_fixed_cost: Decimal | None = None
+    notes: str = ""
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class LTVPolicy:
+    horizon_months: int = 24
+    monthly_discount_rate_pct: Decimal = Decimal("1")
+    required_improvement_factor: Decimal = Decimal("1.05")
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class SensitivityCase:
+    id: str
+    name: str
+    usage_multiplier: Decimal = Decimal("1")
+    usage_variance_delta_pct: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    monthly_churn_delta_pct: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    monthly_default_delta_pct: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    monthly_support_cost_delta: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+    monthly_risk_cost_delta: Decimal = Decimal("0")
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class ComparableLTVEstimate:
+    model_id: str
+    model_name: str
+    validation: ValidationResult
+    average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value: Decimal
+    discounted_margin_ltv: Decimal
+    expected_lifetime_months: Decimal
+    payback_months: int | None
+    adjusted_monthly_churn_pct: Decimal
+    adjusted_monthly_default_pct: Decimal
+    acquisition_cost: Decimal
+    upfront_investment_cost: Decimal
+    seller_cost_recovery_months: int | None
+    assumptions: dict[str, Any]
+    explanation: str
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class SensitivityOutcome:
+    case_id: str
+    case_name: str
+    average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value: Decimal
+    delta_vs_base: Decimal
+    delta_vs_base_pct: Decimal | None
+    decision: str
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class PricingModelComparison:
+    model_id: str
+    model_name: str
+    model_type: str
+    status: str
+    validation_decision: str
+    valid: bool
+    requires_approval: bool
+    average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value: Decimal
+    expected_lifetime_months: Decimal
+    base_monthly_margin: Decimal
+    base_margin_pct: Decimal
+    payment_fee_pct: Decimal
+    contract_duration_months: int
+    reference_model_id: str | None
+    passes_required_improvement: bool
+    required_improvement_threshold: Decimal | None
+    improvement_vs_reference_pct: Decimal | None
+    sensitivity: tuple[SensitivityOutcome, ...]
+    sensitivity_floor_ltv: Decimal
+    sensitivity_ceiling_ltv: Decimal
+    key_drivers: tuple[str, ...]
+    comparison_summary: str
+
+
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class PricingComparison:
+    profile: ComparableCustomerProfile
+    policy: LTVPolicy
+    boundary_policy: BoundaryPolicy
+    reference_model_id: str | None
+    best_ltv_model_id: str | None
+    best_valid_model_id: str | None
+    comparisons: tuple[PricingModelComparison, ...]
+    notes: tuple[str, ...]
+
+
+def default_sensitivity_cases() -> tuple[SensitivityCase, ...]:
+    return (
+        SensitivityCase(
+            id="usage-downside",
+            name="Usage downside",
+            usage_multiplier=Decimal("0.75"),
+            monthly_churn_delta_pct=Decimal("1.5"),
+            monthly_risk_cost_delta=Decimal("0.05"),
+        ),
+        SensitivityCase(
+            id="usage-upside",
+            name="Usage upside",
+            usage_multiplier=Decimal("1.35"),
+            usage_variance_delta_pct=Decimal("10"),
+        ),
+        SensitivityCase(
+            id="risk-spike",
+            name="Risk spike",
+            usage_multiplier=Decimal("1.00"),
+            monthly_churn_delta_pct=Decimal("3.0"),
+            monthly_default_delta_pct=Decimal("1.0"),
+            monthly_support_cost_delta=Decimal("0.25"),
+            monthly_risk_cost_delta=Decimal("0.20"),
+        ),
+    )
+
+
+def _risk_multiplier_for_default(validation: ValidationResult) -> Decimal:
+    metrics = validation.metrics
+    multiplier = Decimal("1")
+    if metrics.prepaid_amount >= metrics.effective_monthly_revenue and metrics.prepaid_amount > Decimal("0"):
+        multiplier *= Decimal("0.50")
+    if (
+        metrics.guaranteed_platform_fee >= metrics.effective_monthly_revenue
+        and metrics.guaranteed_platform_fee > Decimal("0")
+    ):
+        multiplier *= Decimal("0.75")
+    return multiplier
+
+
+def _risk_multiplier_for_churn(validation: ValidationResult) -> Decimal:
+    metrics = validation.metrics
+    multiplier = Decimal("1")
+    if metrics.reduced_cancellation_flexibility:
+        multiplier *= Decimal("0.85")
+    return multiplier
+
+
+def _discount_rate(policy: LTVPolicy) -> Decimal:
+    return Decimal("1") + (policy.monthly_discount_rate_pct / Decimal("100"))
+
+
+def _required_threshold(reference_ltv: Decimal, factor: Decimal) -> Decimal:
+    if reference_ltv >= Decimal("0"):
+        return _money(reference_ltv * factor)
+    improvement = abs(reference_ltv) * (factor - Decimal("1"))
+    return _money(reference_ltv + improvement)
+
+
+def _pct_delta(candidate: Decimal, reference: Decimal) -> Decimal | None:
+    if reference == Decimal("0"):
+        return None
+    return _percent(((candidate - reference) / abs(reference)) * Decimal("100"))
+
+
+def estimate_comparable_customer_ltv(
+    configuration: PricingConfiguration,
+    profile: ComparableCustomerProfile,
+    boundary_policy: BoundaryPolicy,
+    policy: LTVPolicy,
+) -> ComparableLTVEstimate:
+    validation = validate_pricing_configuration(configuration, boundary_policy)
+
+    base_churn_pct = max(profile.monthly_churn_pct, Decimal("0"))
+    base_default_pct = max(profile.monthly_default_pct, Decimal("0"))
+    adjusted_churn_pct = _percent(base_churn_pct * _risk_multiplier_for_churn(validation))
+    adjusted_default_pct = _percent(base_default_pct * _risk_multiplier_for_default(validation))
+
+    monthly_margin = validation.metrics.monthly_margin
+    acquisition_cost = _money(profile.acquisition_cost)
+    upfront_investment_cost = _money(profile.upfront_investment_cost)
+    committed_months = max(validation.metrics.contract_duration_months, 1)
+
+    survival = Decimal("1")
+    expected_lifetime_months = Decimal("0")
+    discounted_margin = Decimal("0")
+    cumulative_discounted_margin = Decimal("0")
+    payback_months: int | None = None
+    recovery_months: int | None = None
+    hurdle = acquisition_cost + upfront_investment_cost
+
+    adjusted_churn_rate = adjusted_churn_pct / Decimal("100")
+    adjusted_default_rate = adjusted_default_pct / Decimal("100")
+    discount_rate = _discount_rate(policy)
+
+    for month in range(1, policy.horizon_months + 1):
+        expected_lifetime_months += survival
+        discounted_month_margin = (monthly_margin * survival) / (discount_rate ** month)
+        discounted_margin += discounted_month_margin
+        cumulative_discounted_margin += discounted_month_margin
+
+        if payback_months is None and cumulative_discounted_margin >= hurdle:
+            payback_months = month
+        if recovery_months is None and cumulative_discounted_margin >= Decimal("0"):
+            recovery_months = month
+
+        if month < committed_months:
+            survival *= Decimal("1") - adjusted_default_rate
+        else:
+            survival *= (Decimal("1") - adjusted_default_rate) * (Decimal("1") - adjusted_churn_rate)
+
+    average_ltv = _money(discounted_margin - hurdle)
+    explanation = (
+        f"Monthly margin {validation.metrics.monthly_margin} {validation.metrics.currency}, "
+        f"expected lifetime {expected_lifetime_months.quantize(Decimal('0.1'))} months, "
+        f"discounted seller LTV {average_ltv} {validation.metrics.currency}."
+    )
+
+    return ComparableLTVEstimate(
+        model_id=configuration.model.id,
+        model_name=configuration.model.name,
+        validation=validation,
+        average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value=average_ltv,
+        discounted_margin_ltv=_money(discounted_margin),
+        expected_lifetime_months=expected_lifetime_months.quantize(Decimal("0.1")),
+        payback_months=payback_months,
+        adjusted_monthly_churn_pct=adjusted_churn_pct,
+        adjusted_monthly_default_pct=adjusted_default_pct,
+        acquisition_cost=acquisition_cost,
+        upfront_investment_cost=upfront_investment_cost,
+        seller_cost_recovery_months=recovery_months,
+        assumptions={
+            "horizon_months": policy.horizon_months,
+            "monthly_discount_rate_pct": _percent(policy.monthly_discount_rate_pct),
+            "base_monthly_churn_pct": _percent(base_churn_pct),
+            "base_monthly_default_pct": _percent(base_default_pct),
+            "committed_months": committed_months,
+        },
+        explanation=explanation,
+    )
+
+
+def _apply_sensitivity(
+    configuration: PricingConfiguration,
+    profile: ComparableCustomerProfile,
+    case: SensitivityCase,
+) -> tuple[PricingConfiguration, ComparableCustomerProfile]:
+    return (
+        replace(
+            configuration,
+            expected_usage_units=_money(configuration.expected_usage_units * case.usage_multiplier),
+            expected_usage_variance_pct=max(
+                configuration.expected_usage_variance_pct + case.usage_variance_delta_pct,
+                Decimal("0"),
+            ),
+            support_cost=max(configuration.support_cost + case.monthly_support_cost_delta, Decimal("0")),
+            risk_cost=max(configuration.risk_cost + case.monthly_risk_cost_delta, Decimal("0")),
+        ),
+        replace(
+            profile,
+            monthly_churn_pct=max(profile.monthly_churn_pct + case.monthly_churn_delta_pct, Decimal("0")),
+            monthly_default_pct=max(profile.monthly_default_pct + case.monthly_default_delta_pct, Decimal("0")),
+        ),
+    )
+
+
+def select_reference_estimate(
+    estimates: list[ComparableLTVEstimate],
+    eligible_model_ids: tuple[str, ...] = (),
+) -> ComparableLTVEstimate | None:
+    candidates = estimates
+    if eligible_model_ids:
+        allowed = set(eligible_model_ids)
+        candidates = [estimate for estimate in estimates if estimate.model_id in allowed]
+
+    valid = [estimate for estimate in candidates if estimate.validation.valid]
+    if valid:
+        return max(valid, key=lambda item: item.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value)
+    if candidates:
+        return max(candidates, key=lambda item: item.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value)
+    return None
+
+
+def _key_drivers(
+    estimate: ComparableLTVEstimate,
+    reference: ComparableLTVEstimate | None,
+) -> tuple[str, ...]:
+    drivers: list[str] = []
+    metrics = estimate.validation.metrics
+    if reference is None:
+        return ("no_reference_model_available",)
+
+    ref_metrics = reference.validation.metrics
+    if metrics.monthly_margin > ref_metrics.monthly_margin:
+        drivers.append("higher_monthly_margin")
+    if estimate.expected_lifetime_months > reference.expected_lifetime_months:
+        drivers.append("longer_expected_lifetime")
+    if metrics.contract_duration_months > ref_metrics.contract_duration_months:
+        drivers.append("longer_commitment_window")
+    if metrics.payment_fee_pct < ref_metrics.payment_fee_pct:
+        drivers.append("lower_payment_fee_burden")
+    if metrics.minimum_monthly_turnover > ref_metrics.minimum_monthly_turnover:
+        drivers.append("stronger_revenue_commitment")
+    if not drivers:
+        drivers.append("reference_like_economics")
+    return tuple(drivers)
+
+
+def _comparison_summary(
+    estimate: ComparableLTVEstimate,
+    reference: ComparableLTVEstimate | None,
+    passes_required_improvement: bool,
+    threshold: Decimal | None,
+) -> str:
+    if reference is None:
+        return f"{estimate.model_name}: no reference model available for improvement comparison."
+
+    improvement = _pct_delta(
+        estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value,
+        reference.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value,
+    )
+    if estimate.model_id == reference.model_id:
+        return f"{estimate.model_name}: reference model for this comparable-customer segment."
+    if passes_required_improvement:
+        return (
+            f"{estimate.model_name}: LTV {estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value} "
+            f"meets threshold {threshold} with improvement {improvement}%."
+        )
+    return (
+        f"{estimate.model_name}: LTV {estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value} "
+        f"misses threshold {threshold} with improvement {improvement}%."
+    )
+
+
+def compare_pricing_configurations(
+    configurations: list[PricingConfiguration],
+    profile: ComparableCustomerProfile,
+    boundary_policy: BoundaryPolicy,
+    policy: LTVPolicy,
+    sensitivity_cases: tuple[SensitivityCase, ...] | None = None,
+) -> PricingComparison:
+    base_estimates = [
+        estimate_comparable_customer_ltv(configuration, profile, boundary_policy, policy)
+        for configuration in configurations
+    ]
+    reference = select_reference_estimate(base_estimates, profile.eligible_model_ids)
+
+    comparisons: list[PricingModelComparison] = []
+    for configuration, estimate in zip(configurations, base_estimates, strict=True):
+        outcomes: list[SensitivityOutcome] = []
+        for case in sensitivity_cases or default_sensitivity_cases():
+            scenario_configuration, scenario_profile = _apply_sensitivity(configuration, profile, case)
+            scenario_estimate = estimate_comparable_customer_ltv(
+                scenario_configuration,
+                scenario_profile,
+                boundary_policy,
+                policy,
+            )
+            delta_vs_base = _money(
+                scenario_estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value
+                - estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value
+            )
+            outcomes.append(
+                SensitivityOutcome(
+                    case_id=case.id,
+                    case_name=case.name,
+                    average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value=scenario_estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value,
+                    delta_vs_base=delta_vs_base,
+                    delta_vs_base_pct=_pct_delta(
+                        scenario_estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value,
+                        estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value,
+                    ),
+                    decision=scenario_estimate.validation.decision,
+                )
+            )
+
+        threshold: Decimal | None = None
+        passes_required_improvement = True
+        if reference is not None and estimate.model_id != reference.model_id:
+            threshold = _required_threshold(
+                reference.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value,
+                policy.required_improvement_factor,
+            )
+            passes_required_improvement = (
+                estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value >= threshold
+            )
+
+        improvement_vs_reference_pct = (
+            Decimal("0.0")
+            if reference is not None and estimate.model_id == reference.model_id
+            else (
+                _pct_delta(
+                    estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value,
+                    reference.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value,
+                )
+                if reference is not None
+                else None
+            )
+        )
+
+        sensitivity_floor = min(
+            [estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value]
+            + [item.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value for item in outcomes]
+        )
+        sensitivity_ceiling = max(
+            [estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value]
+            + [item.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value for item in outcomes]
+        )
+
+        comparisons.append(
+            PricingModelComparison(
+                model_id=estimate.model_id,
+                model_name=estimate.model_name,
+                model_type=configuration.model.model_type,
+                status=configuration.model.status,
+                validation_decision=estimate.validation.decision,
+                valid=estimate.validation.valid,
+                requires_approval=estimate.validation.requires_approval,
+                average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value=estimate.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value,
+                expected_lifetime_months=estimate.expected_lifetime_months,
+                base_monthly_margin=estimate.validation.metrics.monthly_margin,
+                base_margin_pct=estimate.validation.metrics.margin_pct,
+                payment_fee_pct=estimate.validation.metrics.payment_fee_pct,
+                contract_duration_months=estimate.validation.metrics.contract_duration_months,
+                reference_model_id=reference.model_id if reference else None,
+                passes_required_improvement=passes_required_improvement,
+                required_improvement_threshold=threshold,
+                improvement_vs_reference_pct=improvement_vs_reference_pct,
+                sensitivity=tuple(outcomes),
+                sensitivity_floor_ltv=sensitivity_floor,
+                sensitivity_ceiling_ltv=sensitivity_ceiling,
+                key_drivers=_key_drivers(estimate, reference),
+                comparison_summary=_comparison_summary(
+                    estimate,
+                    reference,
+                    passes_required_improvement,
+                    threshold,
+                ),
+            )
+        )
+
+    best_ltv = max(comparisons, key=lambda item: item.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value, default=None)
+    valid_comparisons = [item for item in comparisons if item.valid]
+    best_valid = max(valid_comparisons, key=lambda item: item.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value, default=None)
+
+    notes = (
+        "Comparable-customer LTV uses discounted expected seller margin over a finite horizon.",
+        "Reference selection prefers valid eligible predefined models with the highest seller LTV.",
+        "Negative reference LTV uses additive improvement semantics so tuned models must become less negative, not more negative.",
+    )
+
+    return PricingComparison(
+        profile=profile,
+        policy=policy,
+        boundary_policy=boundary_policy,
+        reference_model_id=reference.model_id if reference else None,
+        best_ltv_model_id=best_ltv.model_id if best_ltv else None,
+        best_valid_model_id=best_valid.model_id if best_valid else None,
+        comparisons=tuple(comparisons),
+        notes=notes,
+    )

docs/ComparableCustomerLTV.md

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+# Comparable Customer LTV
+
+Status: implementation-facing MVP for `ADAPTIVE-WP-0005`.
+
+## Purpose
+
+This document defines the first operational form of
+`average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value`.
+
+The goal is to compare pricing configurations using expected seller economics
+over time instead of only the current-period observatory snapshot.
+
+## Core Definition
+
+For the current MVP:
+
+`average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value`
+
+means discounted expected seller margin for a comparable customer profile over a
+finite horizon, minus acquisition and upfront seller investment costs.
+
+Inputs include:
+
+- validated monthly pricing economics from the boundary engine
+- comparable-customer usage expectations
+- churn and default risk assumptions
+- contract duration and commitment protections
+- seller acquisition and upfront investment costs
+- a seller-configurable discount rate and required-improvement factor
+
+## Reference Model Selection
+
+The comparison engine selects:
+
+`most_favorable_predefined_model`
+
+as the highest-LTV valid predefined model available to the comparable-customer
+profile. If no valid model exists, it falls back to the highest-LTV eligible
+predefined model so the comparison still produces an inspectable anchor.
+
+Eligibility is currently supplied by the simulation profile rather than derived
+solely from model metadata.
+
+## Required Improvement Semantics
+
+For non-reference configurations:
+
+```text
+average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value(candidate)
+>= average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value(reference)
+   × required_improvement_factor
+```
+
+When the reference LTV is positive, the threshold is multiplicative.
+
+When the reference LTV is negative, the engine switches to additive improvement
+semantics so the candidate must become less negative by the requested
+percentage. This avoids the invalid outcome where multiplying a negative value
+would reward a worse configuration.
+
+## Risk Model
+
+Current risk handling is intentionally simple and explicit:
+
+- monthly churn risk applies after committed months expire
+- monthly default risk applies throughout the horizon
+- prepayment and guaranteed-fee commitments reduce default exposure
+- reduced cancellation flexibility lowers modeled churn exposure
+
+This is a policy approximation, not a retention model trained from history.
+
+## Sensitivity Model
+
+Each comparison runs the base case plus named sensitivity cases. The current
+Coulomb adapter includes:
+
+- usage downside
+- usage upside
+- risk spike
+
+Sensitivity output reports:
+
+- scenario LTV
+- delta versus base LTV
+- whether the configuration remains accepted, approval-only, or rejected
+
+## Coulomb Calibration
+
+The Coulomb observatory currently calibrates the generic engine with:
+
+- observed payment-fee rate from `payment_records.json`
+- observed AI usage unit cost from `usage_records.json`
+- segment profiles from `ltv_scenarios.json`
+- profile-specific fixed-cost allocation overrides for comparable future
+  customers
+
+Those fixed-cost overrides are deliberate: the current single-member pilot cost
+structure is too distorted to act as a reusable comparable-customer baseline on
+its own.

projects/coulomb-pricing/data/ltv_scenarios.json

@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+{
+  "version": 1,
+  "currency": "EUR",
+  "horizon_months": 24,
+  "monthly_discount_rate_pct": "1.0",
+  "required_improvement_factor": "1.05",
+  "profiles": [
+    {
+      "id": "solo-builder",
+      "name": "Solo builder",
+      "segment": "coulomb-social-members",
+      "eligible_model_ids": [
+        "flat-899-eur-monthly",
+        "membership-plus-credits",
+        "membership-plus-overage"
+      ],
+      "members_per_customer": 1,
+      "expected_monthly_usage_units": "48200",
+      "usage_variance_pct": "20",
+      "monthly_churn_pct": "6.0",
+      "monthly_default_pct": "1.0",
+      "monthly_support_cost": "0.25",
+      "monthly_risk_cost": "0.10",
+      "acquisition_cost": "2.00",
+      "upfront_investment_cost": "0.00",
+      "allocated_fixed_cost": "5.00",
+      "notes": "Calibrated from the current founding-member usage record and payment ledger."
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "small-team",
+      "name": "Small product team",
+      "segment": "coulomb-social-members",
+      "eligible_model_ids": [
+        "flat-899-eur-monthly",
+        "membership-plus-credits",
+        "membership-plus-overage"
+      ],
+      "members_per_customer": 3,
+      "expected_monthly_usage_units": "180000",
+      "usage_variance_pct": "35",
+      "monthly_churn_pct": "3.5",
+      "monthly_default_pct": "1.0",
+      "monthly_support_cost": "1.50",
+      "monthly_risk_cost": "0.20",
+      "acquisition_cost": "8.00",
+      "upfront_investment_cost": "1.50",
+      "allocated_fixed_cost": "12.00",
+      "notes": "Hypothesis scenario for a higher-usage small team considering a multi-seat relationship."
+    }
+  ],
+  "sensitivity_cases": [
+    {
+      "id": "usage-downside",
+      "name": "Usage downside",
+      "usage_multiplier": "0.75",
+      "monthly_churn_delta_pct": "1.5",
+      "monthly_risk_cost_delta": "0.05"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "usage-upside",
+      "name": "Usage upside",
+      "usage_multiplier": "1.35",
+      "usage_variance_delta_pct": "10.0"
+    },
+    {
+      "id": "risk-spike",
+      "name": "Risk spike",
+      "usage_multiplier": "1.00",
+      "monthly_churn_delta_pct": "3.0",
+      "monthly_default_delta_pct": "1.0",
+      "monthly_support_cost_delta": "0.25",
+      "monthly_risk_cost_delta": "0.20"
+    }
+  ],
+  "notes": "First-pass comparable-customer LTV assumptions for the Coulomb observatory. These scenarios are meant for simulation and comparison, not billing execution."
+}

projects/coulomb-pricing/observatory/api.py

@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ from .economics import build_liquidity_summary, build_snapshot
 from .load import (
     default_data_dir,
     latest_period,
+    load_ltv_scenarios,
     load_budget,
     load_expense_records,
     load_market_signals,
@@ -88,12 +89,19 @@ def build_dashboard_payload(data_dir: Path | None = None, period: str | None = N
     market_raw = load_market_signals(root)
     usage_records = load_usage_records(root)
     usage_summary = build_usage_summary(usage_records, target_period)
+    ltv_scenarios = load_ltv_scenarios(root)
     cost_floor = build_cost_floor(snapshot, models)
     value_range = build_value_range_view(value_range_raw, snapshot, product, models)
     market_price = build_market_price_view(market_raw)
     cost_allocation = build_cost_allocation(snapshot, usage_records)
     ai_cost_per_member = usage_summary["cost_per_active_user_eur"]
-    simulations = build_pricing_simulations(snapshot, models, ai_cost_per_member)
+    simulations = build_pricing_simulations(
+        snapshot,
+        models,
+        ai_cost_per_member,
+        usage_records=usage_records,
+        scenario_catalog=ltv_scenarios,
+    )
     boundary_validation = build_boundary_validation(snapshot, models, usage_records)
     credit_wallets = load_credit_wallets(root)
     credit_summary = build_credit_summary(

projects/coulomb-pricing/observatory/load.py

@@ -115,6 +115,10 @@ def load_market_signals(data_dir: Path | None = None) -> dict:
     return _read_json((data_dir or default_data_dir()) / "market_signals.json")
 
 
+def load_ltv_scenarios(data_dir: Path | None = None) -> dict:
+    return _read_json((data_dir or default_data_dir()) / "ltv_scenarios.json")
+
+
 def load_membership(data_dir: Path | None = None) -> list[MembershipRecord]:
     raw = _read_json((data_dir or default_data_dir()) / "membership.json")
     return [

projects/coulomb-pricing/observatory/ltv.py

@@ -0,0 +1,210 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from decimal import Decimal
+from typing import Any
+
+from ._repo_root import ensure_repo_root_on_syspath
+from .boundary import build_boundary_policy
+from .models import EconomicsSnapshot, PricingModel
+
+ensure_repo_root_on_syspath()
+
+from adaptive_pricing_core.boundary_engine import PricingConfiguration  # noqa: E402
+from adaptive_pricing_core.comparable_ltv import (  # noqa: E402
+    ComparableCustomerProfile,
+    LTVPolicy,
+    SensitivityCase,
+    compare_pricing_configurations,
+)
+
+
+def _serialize(value: Any) -> Any:
+    if isinstance(value, Decimal):
+        return str(value)
+    if hasattr(value, "__dataclass_fields__"):
+        return {key: _serialize(getattr(value, key)) for key in value.__dataclass_fields__}
+    if isinstance(value, tuple):
+        return [_serialize(item) for item in value]
+    if isinstance(value, list):
+        return [_serialize(item) for item in value]
+    if isinstance(value, dict):
+        return {key: _serialize(item) for key, item in value.items()}
+    return value
+
+
+def _decimal(value: Decimal | str | int | float | None) -> Decimal:
+    if value in (None, ""):
+        return Decimal("0")
+    return Decimal(str(value))
+
+
+def _usage_component(model: PricingModel):
+    return next((component for component in model.charge_components if component.kind == "usage"), None)
+
+
+def _included_units(model: PricingModel, members_per_customer: int) -> Decimal | None:
+    usage = _usage_component(model)
+    if not usage or usage.included_units is None:
+        return None
+    return usage.included_units * Decimal(members_per_customer)
+
+
+def _usage_unit_price(model: PricingModel) -> Decimal | None:
+    usage = _usage_component(model)
+    if not usage or usage.unit_price is None:
+        return None
+    return usage.unit_price
+
+
+def _usage_unit_cost(records: list[dict[str, Any]], period: str) -> Decimal:
+    period_rows = [row for row in records if row.get("period") == period]
+    total_units = sum(_decimal(row.get("tokens")) for row in period_rows)
+    total_cost = sum(_decimal(row.get("cost_eur")) for row in period_rows)
+    if total_units <= Decimal("0"):
+        return Decimal("0")
+    return total_cost / total_units
+
+
+def _payment_fee_rate(snapshot: EconomicsSnapshot) -> Decimal:
+    if snapshot.monthly_revenue <= Decimal("0"):
+        return Decimal("0")
+    return (snapshot.monthly_payment_processing_cost / snapshot.monthly_revenue) * Decimal("100")
+
+
+def _profile(raw: dict[str, Any]) -> ComparableCustomerProfile:
+    return ComparableCustomerProfile(
+        id=raw["id"],
+        name=raw["name"],
+        segment=raw["segment"],
+        eligible_model_ids=tuple(raw.get("eligible_model_ids", [])),
+        members_per_customer=int(raw.get("members_per_customer", 1)),
+        expected_monthly_usage_units=_decimal(raw.get("expected_monthly_usage_units")),
+        usage_variance_pct=_decimal(raw.get("usage_variance_pct")),
+        monthly_churn_pct=_decimal(raw.get("monthly_churn_pct")),
+        monthly_default_pct=_decimal(raw.get("monthly_default_pct")),
+        monthly_support_cost=_decimal(raw.get("monthly_support_cost")),
+        monthly_risk_cost=_decimal(raw.get("monthly_risk_cost")),
+        acquisition_cost=_decimal(raw.get("acquisition_cost")),
+        upfront_investment_cost=_decimal(raw.get("upfront_investment_cost")),
+        allocated_fixed_cost=_decimal(raw["allocated_fixed_cost"]) if raw.get("allocated_fixed_cost") else None,
+        notes=raw.get("notes", ""),
+    )
+
+
+def _sensitivity_case(raw: dict[str, Any]) -> SensitivityCase:
+    return SensitivityCase(
+        id=raw["id"],
+        name=raw["name"],
+        usage_multiplier=_decimal(raw.get("usage_multiplier", "1")),
+        usage_variance_delta_pct=_decimal(raw.get("usage_variance_delta_pct")),
+        monthly_churn_delta_pct=_decimal(raw.get("monthly_churn_delta_pct")),
+        monthly_default_delta_pct=_decimal(raw.get("monthly_default_delta_pct")),
+        monthly_support_cost_delta=_decimal(raw.get("monthly_support_cost_delta")),
+        monthly_risk_cost_delta=_decimal(raw.get("monthly_risk_cost_delta")),
+    )
+
+
+def _ltv_policy(raw: dict[str, Any]) -> LTVPolicy:
+    return LTVPolicy(
+        horizon_months=int(raw.get("horizon_months", 24)),
+        monthly_discount_rate_pct=_decimal(raw.get("monthly_discount_rate_pct", "1.0")),
+        required_improvement_factor=_decimal(raw.get("required_improvement_factor", "1.05")),
+    )
+
+
+def _configuration(
+    model: PricingModel,
+    profile: ComparableCustomerProfile,
+    snapshot: EconomicsSnapshot,
+    usage_unit_cost: Decimal,
+) -> PricingConfiguration:
+    members_per_customer = max(profile.members_per_customer, 1)
+    per_member_fixed_cost = (
+        snapshot.monthly_infrastructure_cost / snapshot.active_members
+        if snapshot.active_members
+        else snapshot.monthly_infrastructure_cost
+    )
+    allocated_fixed_cost = (
+        profile.allocated_fixed_cost
+        if profile.allocated_fixed_cost is not None
+        else per_member_fixed_cost * Decimal(members_per_customer)
+    )
+    return PricingConfiguration(
+        model=model,
+        segment=profile.segment,
+        expected_usage_units=profile.expected_monthly_usage_units,
+        expected_usage_variance_pct=profile.usage_variance_pct,
+        allocated_fixed_cost=allocated_fixed_cost,
+        unit_cost=usage_unit_cost,
+        support_cost=profile.monthly_support_cost,
+        risk_cost=profile.monthly_risk_cost,
+        payment_fee_rate_pct=_payment_fee_rate(snapshot),
+        access_fee_amount=model.access_fee_amount * Decimal(members_per_customer),
+        included_units=_included_units(model, members_per_customer),
+        usage_unit_price=_usage_unit_price(model),
+    )
+
+
+def build_ltv_simulations(
+    snapshot: EconomicsSnapshot,
+    models: list[PricingModel],
+    usage_records: list[dict[str, Any]],
+    scenario_catalog: dict[str, Any],
+) -> dict[str, Any]:
+    policy = _ltv_policy(scenario_catalog)
+    boundary_policy = build_boundary_policy(snapshot)
+    sensitivity_cases = tuple(_sensitivity_case(item) for item in scenario_catalog.get("sensitivity_cases", []))
+    observed_usage_unit_cost = _usage_unit_cost(usage_records, snapshot.period)
+
+    profile_results = []
+    for raw_profile in scenario_catalog.get("profiles", []):
+        profile = _profile(raw_profile)
+        configurations = [
+            _configuration(model, profile, snapshot, observed_usage_unit_cost)
+            for model in models
+            if model.status in ("active", "candidate")
+        ]
+        profile_results.append(
+            compare_pricing_configurations(
+                configurations,
+                profile,
+                boundary_policy,
+                policy,
+                sensitivity_cases=sensitivity_cases,
+            )
+        )
+
+    primary = profile_results[0] if profile_results else None
+    primary_scenarios = list(primary.comparisons) if primary else []
+    active_model = next((model for model in models if model.status == "active"), None)
+    best_margin = max(primary_scenarios, key=lambda item: item.base_monthly_margin, default=None)
+    best_ltv = max(
+        primary_scenarios,
+        key=lambda item: item.average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value,
+        default=None,
+    )
+
+    return _serialize({
+        "period": snapshot.period,
+        "currency": snapshot.currency,
+        "required_improvement_factor": policy.required_improvement_factor,
+        "horizon_months": policy.horizon_months,
+        "monthly_discount_rate_pct": policy.monthly_discount_rate_pct,
+        "active_scenario_id": active_model.id if active_model else None,
+        "best_margin_scenario_id": best_margin.model_id if best_margin else None,
+        "best_ltv_scenario_id": best_ltv.model_id if best_ltv else None,
+        "reference_model_id": primary.reference_model_id if primary else None,
+        "primary_profile_id": primary.profile.id if primary else None,
+        "scenarios": primary_scenarios,
+        "profile_comparisons": profile_results,
+        "calibration": {
+            "observed_usage_unit_cost": observed_usage_unit_cost,
+            "observed_payment_fee_rate_pct": _payment_fee_rate(snapshot),
+            "profile_count": len(profile_results),
+        },
+        "notes": [
+            scenario_catalog.get("notes", ""),
+            "Primary scenarios expose the first configured comparable-customer profile for backward-compatible UI consumers.",
+            "Profile comparisons compare candidate models using discounted seller LTV rather than only current-period gross margin.",
+        ],
+    })

projects/coulomb-pricing/observatory/recommendations.py

@@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ def build_pricing_recommendations(
     if ai_spend > Decimal("0") and cost_per_member > Decimal("0"):
         ai_ratio = (ai_spend / cost_per_member) * Decimal("100")
         if ai_ratio > Decimal("15"):
-            best = simulations.get("best_margin_scenario_id")
+            best = simulations.get("best_ltv_scenario_id") or simulations.get("best_margin_scenario_id")
             recommendations.append(
                 {
                     "id": "usage-pricing-signal",
@@ -65,4 +65,4 @@ def build_pricing_recommendations(
             }
         )
 
-    return recommendations
+    return recommendations

projects/coulomb-pricing/observatory/simulator.py

@@ -1,70 +1,64 @@
 from __future__ import annotations
 
-from decimal import Decimal, ROUND_HALF_UP
+from decimal import Decimal
+from typing import Any
 
+from .ltv import build_ltv_simulations
 from .models import EconomicsSnapshot, PricingModel
 
-TWOPLACES = Decimal("0.01")
-OVERAGE_RATE = Decimal("0.002")  # EUR per token above allowance (observatory estimate)
-
-
-def _money(value: Decimal) -> Decimal:
-    return value.quantize(TWOPLACES, rounding=ROUND_HALF_UP)
-
-
-def _simulate_model(
-    model: PricingModel,
-    snapshot: EconomicsSnapshot,
-    ai_cost_per_member: Decimal,
-    included_tokens: int = 100_000,
-    actual_tokens: int = 120_000,
-) -> dict:
-    members = snapshot.active_members or 1
-    subscription_revenue = model.access_fee_amount * members
-    overage_revenue = Decimal("0")
-    if model.model_type == "hybrid_subscription_usage" and actual_tokens > included_tokens:
-        overage_tokens = actual_tokens - included_tokens
-        overage_revenue = OVERAGE_RATE * overage_tokens * members
-
-    gross_revenue = subscription_revenue + overage_revenue
-    platform_cost = snapshot.monthly_total_platform_cost + (ai_cost_per_member * members)
-    margin = gross_revenue - platform_cost
-    margin_pct = (margin / gross_revenue * Decimal("100")) if gross_revenue else Decimal("0")
 
+def _fallback_catalog(models: list[PricingModel]) -> dict[str, Any]:
     return {
-        "model_id": model.id,
+        "version": 1,
-        "model_name": model.name,
+        "currency": "EUR",
-        "model_type": model.model_type,
+        "horizon_months": 24,
-        "status": model.status,
+        "monthly_discount_rate_pct": "1.0",
-        "access_fee_eur": model.access_fee_amount,
+        "required_improvement_factor": "1.05",
-        "projected_revenue_eur": _money(gross_revenue),
+        "profiles": [
-        "projected_overage_eur": _money(overage_revenue),
+            {
-        "projected_platform_cost_eur": _money(platform_cost),
+                "id": "observatory-default",
-        "projected_margin_eur": _money(margin),
+                "name": "Observatory default",
-        "projected_margin_pct": _money(margin_pct),
+                "segment": "coulomb-social-members",
-        "assumed_tokens_per_member": actual_tokens,
+                "eligible_model_ids": [model.id for model in models if model.status in ("active", "candidate")],
-        "included_tokens": included_tokens if model.model_type != "flat_subscription" else None,
+                "members_per_customer": 1,
+                "expected_monthly_usage_units": "120000",
+                "usage_variance_pct": "25",
+                "monthly_churn_pct": "5.0",
+                "monthly_default_pct": "1.0",
+                "monthly_support_cost": "0.00",
+                "monthly_risk_cost": "0.00",
+                "acquisition_cost": "0.00",
+                "upfront_investment_cost": "0.00",
+                "notes": "Fallback scenario when no explicit LTV scenario catalog is provided."
+            }
+        ],
+        "notes": "Fallback scenario catalog generated inside observatory.simulator.",
     }
 
 
+def _fallback_usage_records(snapshot: EconomicsSnapshot, ai_cost_per_member: Decimal) -> list[dict[str, Any]]:
+    return [
+        {
+            "id": "fallback-usage",
+            "period": snapshot.period,
+            "member_id": "fallback",
+            "tokens": 120000,
+            "cost_eur": ai_cost_per_member,
+            "source": "fallback",
+        }
+    ]
+
+
 def build_pricing_simulations(
     snapshot: EconomicsSnapshot,
     models: list[PricingModel],
     ai_cost_per_member: Decimal,
-) -> dict:
+    usage_records: list[dict[str, Any]] | None = None,
-    scenarios = [
+    scenario_catalog: dict[str, Any] | None = None,
-        _simulate_model(model, snapshot, ai_cost_per_member)
+) -> dict[str, Any]:
-        for model in models
+    return build_ltv_simulations(
-        if model.status in ("active", "candidate")
+        snapshot,
-    ]
+        models,
-    active = next((item for item in scenarios if item["status"] == "active"), scenarios[0])
+        usage_records or _fallback_usage_records(snapshot, ai_cost_per_member),
-    best_margin = max(scenarios, key=lambda item: item["projected_margin_eur"])
+        scenario_catalog or _fallback_catalog(models),
-
+    )
-    return {
-        "period": snapshot.period,
-        "currency": snapshot.currency,
-        "active_scenario_id": active["model_id"],
-        "best_margin_scenario_id": best_margin["model_id"],
-        "scenarios": scenarios,
-        "notes": "Projections hold member count and infrastructure cost constant; overage uses observatory token estimate.",
-    }

projects/coulomb-pricing/tests/test_api.py

@@ -24,6 +24,10 @@ def test_dashboard_payload_contains_live_ledger_totals() -> None:
     assert payload["membership_analytics"]["active_members"] == 1
     assert payload["usage"]["record_count"] == 1
     assert len(payload["pricing_simulations"]["scenarios"]) == 3
+    assert len(payload["pricing_simulations"]["profile_comparisons"]) == 2
+    assert payload["pricing_simulations"]["primary_profile_id"] == "solo-builder"
+    assert payload["pricing_simulations"]["required_improvement_factor"] == "1.05"
+    assert payload["pricing_simulations"]["reference_model_id"] is not None
     assert len(payload["boundary_validation"]["model_results"]) == 3
     assert payload["boundary_validation"]["policy"]["target_margin_pct"] == "15"
     assert any(

projects/coulomb-pricing/tests/test_comparable_ltv.py

@@ -0,0 +1,69 @@
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from pathlib import Path
+
+from observatory.economics import build_snapshot
+from observatory.load import (
+    load_ltv_scenarios,
+    load_membership,
+    load_monthly_ledger,
+    load_payment_records,
+    load_pricing_models,
+    load_product,
+)
+from observatory.simulator import build_pricing_simulations
+from observatory.usage import load_usage_records
+
+DATA_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / "data"
+
+
+def _snapshot(period: str = "2026-06"):
+    product = load_product(DATA_DIR)
+    models = load_pricing_models(DATA_DIR)
+    members = load_membership(DATA_DIR)
+    payments = load_payment_records(DATA_DIR)
+    ledger = load_monthly_ledger(DATA_DIR)
+    return build_snapshot(period, product, models, members, payments, ledger)
+
+
+def test_simulations_include_reference_model_and_profile_comparisons() -> None:
+    snapshot = _snapshot()
+    models = load_pricing_models(DATA_DIR)
+    simulations = build_pricing_simulations(
+        snapshot,
+        models,
+        snapshot.cost_per_member,
+        usage_records=load_usage_records(DATA_DIR),
+        scenario_catalog=load_ltv_scenarios(DATA_DIR),
+    )
+
+    assert simulations["primary_profile_id"] == "solo-builder"
+    assert simulations["reference_model_id"] is not None
+    assert simulations["best_ltv_scenario_id"] is not None
+    assert len(simulations["profile_comparisons"]) == 2
+    assert simulations["scenarios"][0]["average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value"] is not None
+    assert simulations["scenarios"][0]["sensitivity"]
+
+
+def test_small_team_profile_has_reference_and_non_passing_candidates() -> None:
+    snapshot = _snapshot()
+    models = load_pricing_models(DATA_DIR)
+    simulations = build_pricing_simulations(
+        snapshot,
+        models,
+        snapshot.cost_per_member,
+        usage_records=load_usage_records(DATA_DIR),
+        scenario_catalog=load_ltv_scenarios(DATA_DIR),
+    )
+
+    small_team = next(
+        item for item in simulations["profile_comparisons"] if item["profile"]["id"] == "small-team"
+    )
+
+    assert small_team["reference_model_id"] is not None
+    assert small_team["best_valid_model_id"] is not None
+    assert any(
+        not comparison["passes_required_improvement"]
+        for comparison in small_team["comparisons"]
+        if comparison["model_id"] != small_team["reference_model_id"]
+    )

projects/coulomb-pricing/tests/test_mvp_sprints.py

@@ -8,6 +8,7 @@ from observatory.api import build_dashboard_payload
 from observatory.credits import build_credit_summary, load_credit_wallets
 from observatory.economics import build_snapshot
 from observatory.load import (
+    load_ltv_scenarios,
     load_membership,
     load_monthly_ledger,
     load_payment_records,
@@ -58,10 +59,18 @@ def test_cost_allocation_includes_ai_variable_cost() -> None:
 def test_pricing_simulator_compares_candidate_models() -> None:
     snapshot = _snapshot()
     models = load_pricing_models(DATA_DIR)
-    simulations = build_pricing_simulations(snapshot, models, Decimal("0.06"))
+    simulations = build_pricing_simulations(
+        snapshot,
+        models,
+        Decimal("0.06"),
+        usage_records=load_usage_records(DATA_DIR),
+        scenario_catalog=load_ltv_scenarios(DATA_DIR),
+    )
 
     assert len(simulations["scenarios"]) == 3
     assert simulations["active_scenario_id"] == "flat-899-eur-monthly"
+    assert simulations["best_ltv_scenario_id"] is not None
+    assert simulations["reference_model_id"] is not None
 
 
 def test_credit_summary_tracks_remaining_allowance() -> None:
@@ -93,4 +102,4 @@ def test_dashboard_payload_includes_mvp_sections() -> None:
     assert "cost_allocation" in payload
     assert "pricing_simulations" in payload
     assert "credit_wallets" in payload
-    assert "recommendations" in payload
+    assert "recommendations" in payload

workplans/ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-comparable-customer-ltv-and-simulation-upgrade.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ type: workplan
 title: "Comparable customer LTV and simulation upgrade"
 domain: financials
 repo: adaptive-pricing
-status: backlog
+status: finished
 owner: codex
 topic_slug: helix-forge
 created: "2026-07-02"
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ current-period Coulomb snapshot.
 
 ```task
 id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T01
-status: todo
+status: done
 priority: high
 state_hub_task_id: "2c6ff5b9-de47-46c1-aaa8-5e6e226f96d0"
 ```
@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ required for reliable estimates.
 
 ```task
 id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T02
-status: todo
+status: done
 priority: high
 state_hub_task_id: "fbf4e274-70ec-468f-988c-cbebeef304d2"
 ```
@@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ commitment offsets.
 
 ```task
 id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T03
-status: todo
+status: done
 priority: medium
 state_hub_task_id: "084bf0bb-5892-429e-bd8a-1f9edc273eb3"
 ```
@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ to forecast changes.
 
 ```task
 id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T04
-status: todo
+status: done
 priority: medium
 state_hub_task_id: "9c60c8d2-7cd0-4035-92dc-cae8c4cd85d7"
 ```
@@ -74,7 +74,7 @@ other products.
 
 ```task
 id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T05
-status: todo
+status: done
 priority: medium
 state_hub_task_id: "fabd1f1b-d3b7-4bfb-a2fc-212ec31c5f31"
 ```
@@ -83,4 +83,3 @@ Exit when simulations can compare pricing models using an explicit LTV-oriented
 economic model with documented assumptions and test coverage.
 
 Dependencies: `ADAPTIVE-WP-0003`, `ADAPTIVE-WP-0004`.
-