---
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002
type: workplan
title: "Economic Observatory MVP (Coulomb Social)"
domain: financials
repo: adaptive-pricing
status: finished
owner: codex
topic_slug: helix-forge
created: "2026-06-21"
updated: "2026-07-02"
state_hub_workstream_id: "9e0b7784-702a-4bc7-b7a1-3ff801f9c768"
---

# Economic Observatory MVP (Coulomb Social)

Build the first practical implementation of the Adaptive Pricing framework using
Coulomb Social memberships as a live economic laboratory.

The MVP focuses on observation, measurement, simulation, and pricing discovery
before introducing adaptive customer pricing.

## Context

### Current Product: Coulomb Social

**Membership:** €8.99/month subscription, managed through Bubble.io, paid through
Stripe, grants repository and community access.

**Fixed costs:** Bubble.io subscription (~$35/month), domains, operational overhead.

**Variable costs:** Stripe transaction fees, future OpenRouter AI consumption costs.

### MVP Vision

The MVP shall provide an Economic Observatory capable of answering:

1. What does a member actually cost?
2. What is the current CostFloor?
3. What margin exists at current pricing?
4. How much AI cost is generated by individual members?
5. Which pricing models appear viable?
6. Which customer segments emerge?
7. When would usage-based pricing become necessary?

### Scope

**Included:** membership analytics, revenue tracking, cost tracking, OpenRouter cost
attribution, CostFloor calculation, margin analysis, pricing simulations, pricing
model registry.

**Excluded:** dynamic pricing, automated price changes, customer-tunable pricing,
advanced LTV optimization, marketplace pricing.

### Success Criteria

The MVP is successful when it can:

- Calculate CostFloor
- Calculate Margin
- Attribute AI cost to members
- Simulate alternative pricing models
- Compare subscription and usage-based models
- Explain economic outcomes
- Produce pricing recommendations

**Completed 2026-06-22** via ledger-backed economics engine, web UI, file-based
importers (Bubble / Stripe / OpenRouter), pricing simulator, credit wallets, and
recommendation engine under `projects/coulomb-pricing/observatory/`.

## Sprint 1 — Economic Foundations

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T01
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "fac96369-a037-4b7e-a1ed-92659bce7e4e"
```

Create the core economic model.

Done 2026-06-21: `projects/coulomb-pricing/observatory/` with JSON registries
under `data/`, economics snapshot engine, CLI dashboard (`python3 -m
observatory`), sample report `reports/economics-2026-06.md`, and pytest suite.

## Sprint 2 — Bubble.io Integration

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T02
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "42c181f9-9f4e-414e-aa94-b08c763abdef"
```

Import membership information.

Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/importers/bubble.py` (JSON export →
`membership.json`), `membership_analytics` in dashboard API, sample export under
`data/imports/bubble-export.sample.json`.

## Sprint 3 — Stripe Integration

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T03
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "c7e308bc-5977-40c8-985a-9dca2ad3984a"
```

Capture actual revenue and payment costs.

Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/importers/stripe.py` (charge export →
`payment_records.json`); live ledger already holds tegwick Stripe payments.

## Sprint 4 — OpenRouter Cost Attribution

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T04
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "b2b61910-429c-46e9-93b8-25702ca337a7"
```

Track AI usage and cost.

Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/importers/openrouter.py`, `data/usage_records.json`,
`observatory/usage.py` (per-member and per-model attribution in API).

## Sprint 5 — Cost Allocation Engine

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T05
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "906009be-5670-428a-b6d1-2700c67e9c65"
```

Calculate economic reality.

Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/allocation.py` — fixed/variable split, cost floor,
contribution margin in `/api/dashboard` (`cost_allocation`).

## Sprint 6 — Pricing Simulator

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T06
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "cb735e7d-72ac-41df-97d4-e0133cb4bb84"
```

Evaluate pricing scenarios.

Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/simulator.py` compares active and candidate models
from `pricing-models.json` (`pricing_simulations` in API).

## Sprint 7 — Membership Credit System

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T07
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "aa8efb52-dbd8-4309-a15d-ea04d80c57f6"
```

Introduce AI credit accounting without billing.

Done 2026-06-22: `data/credit_wallets.json`, `observatory/credits.py`
(observatory-only wallet balances in API).

## Sprint 8 — Adaptive Pricing Prototype

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T08
status: done
priority: low
state_hub_task_id: "d8195bf0-5b0d-4fbd-9776-0b619097c64f"
```

Implement first pricing optimization logic.

Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/recommendations.py` — rules-based recommendations
from cost floor, value range, market signals, and simulator output.

## Economic Observatory Web UI

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T09
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "cfcfa53d-8e7d-464f-977c-d146dd252c35"
```

Whynot-design UI with ledger-backed API.

Done 2026-06-22: `ui/` + `observatory/server.py`, whynot-design vendor sync,
`docs/UI-WORKFLOW.md`. Three panels: Cost Floor, Value Range, Market Price.

## Pricing Context Views

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T10
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "563cbded-ad2a-4ee8-8779-18f7e55970df"
```

Cost floor, value range, and market price observatory views.

Done 2026-06-22: `observatory/pricing_context.py`, `data/value_range.json`,
`data/market_signals.json`, wired into UI and API.