---
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005
type: workplan
title: "Comparable customer LTV and simulation upgrade"
domain: financials
repo: adaptive-pricing
status: backlog
owner: codex
topic_slug: helix-forge
created: "2026-07-02"
updated: "2026-07-02"
state_hub_workstream_id: "7fb6c58e-fabb-4e52-87d1-4a02984191ea"
---

# Comparable customer LTV and simulation upgrade

Upgrade the current observatory economics layer so pricing models can be
compared using segment-aware, risk-aware seller economics rather than only the
current-period Coulomb snapshot.

## Define Comparable-Customer LTV Model

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T01
status: todo
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "2c6ff5b9-de47-46c1-aaa8-5e6e226f96d0"
```

Specify `average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value`, the reference-model
selection logic, required-improvement semantics, and the data assumptions
required for reliable estimates.

## Extend Simulation Inputs

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T02
status: todo
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "fbf4e274-70ec-468f-988c-cbebeef304d2"
```

Extend the simulator beyond fixed member counts and hard-coded token assumptions
to use segments, usage forecasts, churn/default risk, contract conditions, and
commitment offsets.

## Rework Pricing Comparison Outputs

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T03
status: todo
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "084bf0bb-5892-429e-bd8a-1f9edc273eb3"
```

Produce comparison outputs that can explain why one model is better for seller
economics, what assumptions drive the outcome, and how sensitive the outcome is
to forecast changes.

## Calibrate With Coulomb Pilot Data

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T04
status: todo
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "9c60c8d2-7cd0-4035-92dc-cae8c4cd85d7"
```

Use the Coulomb observatory data and scenario fixtures to calibrate the first
version of the comparison engine, while preserving its generic interface for
other products.

## Exit Criteria

```task
id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T05
status: todo
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "fabd1f1b-d3b7-4bfb-a2fc-212ec31c5f31"
```

Exit when simulations can compare pricing models using an explicit LTV-oriented
economic model with documented assumptions and test coverage.

Dependencies: `ADAPTIVE-WP-0003`, `ADAPTIVE-WP-0004`.