feat(P4): IHF Phase 4 complete — Outcome Observation and Antifragility Loop

Closes the IHF improvement loop. Full antifragility chain now traversable:
Widget → Annotation → Candidate → Requirement → Decision → Deployment → OutcomeSignal

New artifacts:
- DeploymentRecord (immutable, links DecisionRecord to a deployed version)
- OutcomeSignal (append-only; DB trigger prevents UPDATE/DELETE)
- ChangeEvaluation (one-per-deployment; UNIQUE constraint; 1–5 score)

New capabilities:
- DeploymentRecordsController (index, show, new, create)
- RecordOutcomeSignalAction — capture improved/regressed/neutral/inconclusive signals
- Pre/post comparison panel on deployment show (±30-day event/annotation counts)
- Regression detection — improved signal followed by high/critical annotation
- ChangeEvaluation — idempotent score+rationale per deployment
- Recurrence tracking — cycle count per widget, leaderboard
- AntifragilityDashboardAction (autoRefresh, 5 panels) per hub
- Phase 4 integration tests (T01–T08 logic coverage)
- docs/phase4-summary.md; SCOPE.md updated to Phase 4 complete

State Hub: workstream 07e9c860 → completed

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Web/View/DecisionRecords/Show.hs

@@ -6,12 +6,14 @@ import IHP.Prelude
 import IHP.ViewPrelude
 
 data ShowView = ShowView
-    { record       :: !DecisionRecord
-    , policyRefs   :: ![PolicyReference]
-    , implRefs     :: ![ImplementationChangeReference]
-    , mRequirement :: !(Maybe Requirement)
-    , mCandidate   :: !(Maybe RequirementCandidate)
-    , users        :: ![User]
+    { record            :: !DecisionRecord
+    , policyRefs        :: ![PolicyReference]
+    , implRefs          :: ![ImplementationChangeReference]
+    , deploymentRecords :: ![DeploymentRecord]
+    , evaluations       :: ![ChangeEvaluation]
+    , mRequirement      :: !(Maybe Requirement)
+    , mCandidate        :: !(Maybe RequirementCandidate)
+    , users             :: ![User]
     }
 
 instance View ShowView where
@@ -92,6 +94,24 @@ instance View ShowView where
                 </form>
             </div>
 
+            <!-- Deployments -->
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-4">
+                <div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-3">
+                    <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700">Deployments</h2>
+                    {if null implRefs
+                        then mempty
+                        else [hsx|
+                            <a href={(pathTo NewDeploymentRecordAction) <> "?decisionId=" <> show record.id}
+                               class="text-xs border border-indigo-300 text-indigo-600 px-3 py-1 rounded hover:bg-indigo-50">
+                                New Deployment
+                            </a>
+                        |]}
+                </div>
+                {if null deploymentRecords
+                    then [hsx|<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">No deployments recorded yet.</p>|]
+                    else [hsx|{forEach deploymentRecords (renderDeploymentRow evaluations)}|]}
+            </div>
+
             <!-- Implementation references -->
             <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-4">
                 <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">Implementation References</h2>
@@ -201,6 +221,36 @@ systemBadgeClass "linear" = "bg-violet-100 text-violet-800"
 systemBadgeClass "jira"   = "bg-blue-100 text-blue-800"
 systemBadgeClass _        = "bg-gray-100 text-gray-600"
 
+renderDeploymentRow :: [ChangeEvaluation] -> DeploymentRecord -> Html
+renderDeploymentRow evals dr = [hsx|
+    <div class="flex items-center justify-between py-2 border-b border-gray-100 last:border-0">
+        <div class="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm">
+            <a href={ShowDeploymentRecordAction { deploymentRecordId = dr.id }}
+               class="font-mono text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{dr.versionRef}</a>
+            <span class="text-xs text-gray-400">{show dr.deployedAt}</span>
+        </div>
+        {maybe mempty renderEvalSummary mEval}
+    </div>
+|]
+  where
+    mEval = find (\e -> e.deploymentId == dr.id) evals
+
+renderEvalSummary :: ChangeEvaluation -> Html
+renderEvalSummary ev = [hsx|
+    <span class={scoreClass ev.score <> " text-xs px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-medium"}>
+        {starsFor ev.score}
+    </span>
+|]
+
+starsFor :: Int16 -> Text
+starsFor n = pack (Prelude.replicate (fromIntegral n) '★') <> pack (Prelude.replicate (5 - fromIntegral n) '☆')
+
+scoreClass :: Int16 -> Text
+scoreClass n
+    | n <= 2    = "bg-red-100 text-red-800"
+    | n == 3    = "bg-yellow-100 text-yellow-800"
+    | otherwise = "bg-green-100 text-green-800"
+
 userName :: [User] -> Maybe (Id User) -> Text
 userName _     Nothing    = "—"
 userName users (Just uid) = maybe "(unknown)" (.name) (find (\u -> u.id == uid) users)

Web/View/DeploymentRecords/Index.hs

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+module Web.View.DeploymentRecords.Index where
+
+import Web.Types
+import Generated.Types
+import IHP.Prelude
+import IHP.ViewPrelude
+
+data IndexView = IndexView
+    { records     :: ![DeploymentRecord]
+    , decisions   :: ![DecisionRecord]
+    , signals     :: ![OutcomeSignal]
+    , evaluations :: ![ChangeEvaluation]
+    }
+
+instance View IndexView where
+    html IndexView { .. } = [hsx|
+        <div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-6">
+            <h1 class="text-2xl font-semibold">Deployments</h1>
+            <a href={NewDeploymentRecordAction}
+               class="text-sm bg-indigo-600 text-white px-4 py-2 rounded hover:bg-indigo-700">
+                New Deployment
+            </a>
+        </div>
+
+        {if null records
+            then [hsx|<p class="text-gray-500 text-sm">No deployment records yet.</p>|]
+            else renderTable records decisions signals evaluations}
+    |]
+
+renderTable :: [DeploymentRecord] -> [DecisionRecord] -> [OutcomeSignal] -> [ChangeEvaluation] -> Html
+renderTable records decisions signals evaluations = [hsx|
+    <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 overflow-hidden">
+        <table class="w-full text-sm">
+            <thead class="bg-gray-50 border-b border-gray-200">
+                <tr>
+                    <th class="text-left px-4 py-3 font-semibold text-gray-600">Decision</th>
+                    <th class="text-left px-4 py-3 font-semibold text-gray-600">Version</th>
+                    <th class="text-left px-4 py-3 font-semibold text-gray-600">Deployed At</th>
+                    <th class="text-right px-4 py-3 font-semibold text-gray-600">Signals</th>
+                    <th class="text-right px-4 py-3 font-semibold text-gray-600">Evaluation</th>
+                </tr>
+            </thead>
+            <tbody>
+                {forEach records (renderRow decisions signals evaluations)}
+            </tbody>
+        </table>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+renderRow :: [DecisionRecord] -> [OutcomeSignal] -> [ChangeEvaluation] -> DeploymentRecord -> Html
+renderRow decisions signals evaluations record = [hsx|
+    <tr class="border-b border-gray-100 hover:bg-gray-50 last:border-0">
+        <td class="px-4 py-3">
+            <a href={ShowDeploymentRecordAction { deploymentRecordId = record.id }}
+               class="text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{decisionTitle}</a>
+        </td>
+        <td class="px-4 py-3 font-mono text-gray-700">{record.versionRef}</td>
+        <td class="px-4 py-3 text-gray-500">{show record.deployedAt}</td>
+        <td class="px-4 py-3 text-right text-gray-600">{show signalCount}</td>
+        <td class="px-4 py-3 text-right">
+            {maybe [hsx|<span class="text-gray-400">—</span>|] renderScoreBadge mScore}
+        </td>
+    </tr>
+|]
+  where
+    decisionTitle = maybe "(unknown)" (.title) $
+        find (\d -> d.id == record.decisionId) decisions
+    signalCount = length $ filter (\s -> s.deploymentId == record.id) signals
+    mScore :: Maybe Int16
+    mScore = fmap (.score) $ find (\e -> e.deploymentId == record.id) evaluations
+
+renderScoreBadge :: Int16 -> Html
+renderScoreBadge score = [hsx|
+    <span class={scoreClass score <> " text-xs px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-medium"}>
+        {starsFor score}
+    </span>
+|]
+
+starsFor :: Int16 -> Text
+starsFor n = pack (Prelude.replicate (fromIntegral n) '★') <> pack (Prelude.replicate (5 - fromIntegral n) '☆')
+
+scoreClass :: Int16 -> Text
+scoreClass n
+    | n <= 2    = "bg-red-100 text-red-800"
+    | n == 3    = "bg-yellow-100 text-yellow-800"
+    | otherwise = "bg-green-100 text-green-800"

Web/View/DeploymentRecords/New.hs

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+module Web.View.DeploymentRecords.New where
+
+import Web.Types
+import Generated.Types
+import IHP.Prelude
+import IHP.ViewPrelude
+
+data NewView = NewView
+    { record      :: !DeploymentRecord
+    , decisions   :: ![DecisionRecord]
+    , implRefs    :: ![ImplementationChangeReference]
+    , users       :: ![User]
+    , mDecisionId :: !(Maybe (Id DecisionRecord))
+    }
+
+instance View NewView where
+    html NewView { .. } = [hsx|
+        <div class="mb-6 flex items-center gap-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
+            <a href={DeploymentRecordsAction} class="hover:text-gray-700">Deployments</a>
+            <span>/</span>
+            <span>New</span>
+        </div>
+
+        <div class="max-w-xl">
+            <h1 class="text-2xl font-semibold mb-6">Record Deployment</h1>
+
+            <form method="POST" action={CreateDeploymentRecordAction}
+                  class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-5 space-y-4">
+                {hiddenField "authenticity_token"}
+
+                <div>
+                    <label class="block text-sm font-medium text-gray-700 mb-1">
+                        Decision <span class="text-red-500">*</span>
+                    </label>
+                    <select name="decisionId"
+                            class="w-full text-sm border border-gray-300 rounded px-3 py-2">
+                        {forEach decisions (renderDecisionOption mDecisionId)}
+                    </select>
+                </div>
+
+                <div>
+                    <label class="block text-sm font-medium text-gray-700 mb-1">
+                        Implementation Reference <span class="text-gray-400">(optional)</span>
+                    </label>
+                    <select name="implRefId"
+                            class="w-full text-sm border border-gray-300 rounded px-3 py-2">
+                        <option value="">— none —</option>
+                        {forEach implRefs renderImplRefOption}
+                    </select>
+                </div>
+
+                <div>
+                    <label class="block text-sm font-medium text-gray-700 mb-1">
+                        Version Reference <span class="text-red-500">*</span>
+                    </label>
+                    <input type="text" name="versionRef"
+                           value={record.versionRef}
+                           placeholder="e.g. v1.2.3, git:abc1234, deploy/2026-03-29"
+                           class="w-full text-sm border border-gray-300 rounded px-3 py-2" />
+                    {validationErrorsFor record #versionRef}
+                </div>
+
+                <div>
+                    <label class="block text-sm font-medium text-gray-700 mb-1">
+                        Notes <span class="text-gray-400">(optional)</span>
+                    </label>
+                    <textarea name="notes" rows="3"
+                              class="w-full text-sm border border-gray-300 rounded px-3 py-2">{fromMaybe "" record.notes}</textarea>
+                </div>
+
+                <div class="flex gap-3 pt-2">
+                    <button type="submit"
+                            class="text-sm bg-indigo-600 text-white px-4 py-2 rounded hover:bg-indigo-700">
+                        Record Deployment
+                    </button>
+                    <a href={DeploymentRecordsAction}
+                       class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-4 py-2 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
+                        Cancel
+                    </a>
+                </div>
+            </form>
+        </div>
+    |]
+
+renderDecisionOption :: Maybe (Id DecisionRecord) -> DecisionRecord -> Html
+renderDecisionOption mSelected d = [hsx|
+    <option value={show d.id} selected={isSelected}>
+        {d.title} ({d.outcome})
+    </option>
+|]
+  where
+    isSelected = case mSelected of
+        Just sid -> sid == d.id
+        Nothing  -> False
+
+renderImplRefOption :: ImplementationChangeReference -> Html
+renderImplRefOption ref = [hsx|
+    <option value={show ref.id}>{ref.workItemRef} ({ref.system})</option>
+|]

Web/View/DeploymentRecords/Show.hs

@@ -0,0 +1,332 @@
+module Web.View.DeploymentRecords.Show where
+
+import Web.Types
+import Generated.Types
+import IHP.Prelude
+import IHP.ViewPrelude
+
+data PeriodMetrics = PeriodMetrics
+    { eventCount      :: !Int
+    , annotationCount :: !Int
+    , lowCount        :: !Int
+    , mediumCount     :: !Int
+    , highCount       :: !Int
+    , criticalCount   :: !Int
+    }
+
+highCriticalRate :: PeriodMetrics -> Double
+highCriticalRate m
+    | m.annotationCount == 0 = 0
+    | otherwise = fromIntegral (m.highCount + m.criticalCount) / fromIntegral m.annotationCount
+
+data ShowView = ShowView
+    { record       :: !DeploymentRecord
+    , decision     :: !DecisionRecord
+    , mImplRef     :: !(Maybe ImplementationChangeReference)
+    , mRequirement :: !(Maybe Requirement)
+    , mCandidate   :: !(Maybe RequirementCandidate)
+    , mWidget      :: !(Maybe Widget)
+    , signals      :: ![OutcomeSignal]
+    , mEvaluation  :: !(Maybe ChangeEvaluation)
+    , users        :: ![User]
+    , comparison   :: !(Maybe (PeriodMetrics, PeriodMetrics))
+    }
+
+instance View ShowView where
+    html ShowView { .. } = [hsx|
+        <div class="mb-6 flex items-center gap-2 text-sm text-gray-500">
+            <a href={DeploymentRecordsAction} class="hover:text-gray-700">Deployments</a>
+            <span>/</span>
+            <span>{record.versionRef}</span>
+        </div>
+
+        <div class="max-w-3xl space-y-6">
+            <!-- Header card -->
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-5">
+                <div class="flex items-start justify-between mb-3">
+                    <h1 class="text-2xl font-semibold">{record.versionRef}</h1>
+                </div>
+                <div class="text-xs text-gray-400 mb-3">
+                    Deployed at: {show record.deployedAt} ·
+                    Deployed by: {userName users record.deployedBy}
+                </div>
+                {maybe mempty renderNotes record.notes}
+            </div>
+
+            <!-- Decision chain -->
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-4">
+                <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">Decision Chain</h2>
+                <div class="space-y-2 text-sm">
+                    <div class="flex items-center gap-2">
+                        <span class="text-xs font-semibold text-gray-400 uppercase w-24">Decision</span>
+                        <a href={ShowDecisionRecordAction { decisionRecordId = decision.id }}
+                           class="text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{decision.title}</a>
+                        <span class={outcomeClass decision.outcome <> " text-xs px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-medium"}>
+                            {decision.outcome}
+                        </span>
+                    </div>
+                    {maybe mempty renderImplRefRow mImplRef}
+                    {maybe mempty renderRequirementRow mRequirement}
+                    {maybe mempty renderCandidateRow mCandidate}
+                    {maybe mempty renderWidgetRow mWidget}
+                </div>
+            </div>
+
+            <!-- Outcome signals -->
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-4">
+                <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">Outcome Signals</h2>
+                {if null signals
+                    then [hsx|<p class="text-sm text-gray-400 mb-3">No signals recorded yet.</p>|]
+                    else [hsx|<div class="mb-4">{forEach signals renderSignal}</div>|]}
+                <form method="POST" action={RecordOutcomeSignalAction { deploymentRecordId = record.id }}
+                      class="flex items-end gap-2 mt-2">
+                    {hiddenField "authenticity_token"}
+                    <div>
+                        <label class="text-xs text-gray-500 block mb-1">Signal type</label>
+                        <select name="signalType"
+                                class="text-sm border border-gray-300 rounded px-2 py-1.5">
+                            <option value="improved">improved</option>
+                            <option value="regressed">regressed</option>
+                            <option value="neutral">neutral</option>
+                            <option value="inconclusive">inconclusive</option>
+                        </select>
+                    </div>
+                    <div>
+                        <label class="text-xs text-gray-500 block mb-1">Value (0–100, optional)</label>
+                        <input type="number" name="value" min="0" max="100" step="any"
+                               class="w-24 text-sm border border-gray-300 rounded px-2 py-1.5"
+                               placeholder="—" />
+                    </div>
+                    <button type="submit"
+                            class="text-sm bg-gray-100 border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-200">
+                        Record
+                    </button>
+                </form>
+            </div>
+
+            <!-- Change evaluation -->
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-4">
+                <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">Change Evaluation</h2>
+                {maybe (renderNoEvaluationForm record.id) renderEvaluation mEvaluation}
+            </div>
+
+            <!-- Pre/post comparison -->
+            {maybe mempty renderComparison comparison}
+        </div>
+    |]
+
+renderNotes :: Text -> Html
+renderNotes notes = [hsx|
+    <div class="mt-2">
+        <p class="text-xs font-semibold text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wide mb-1">Notes</p>
+        <p class="text-sm text-gray-600 italic">{notes}</p>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+renderImplRefRow :: ImplementationChangeReference -> Html
+renderImplRefRow ref = [hsx|
+    <div class="flex items-center gap-2">
+        <span class="text-xs font-semibold text-gray-400 uppercase w-24">Impl Ref</span>
+        <span class="font-mono text-gray-700">{ref.workItemRef}</span>
+        <span class="text-xs text-gray-400">({ref.system})</span>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+renderRequirementRow :: Requirement -> Html
+renderRequirementRow req = [hsx|
+    <div class="flex items-center gap-2">
+        <span class="text-xs font-semibold text-gray-400 uppercase w-24">Requirement</span>
+        <a href={ShowRequirementAction { requirementId = req.id }}
+           class="text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{req.title}</a>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+renderCandidateRow :: RequirementCandidate -> Html
+renderCandidateRow c = [hsx|
+    <div class="flex items-center gap-2">
+        <span class="text-xs font-semibold text-gray-400 uppercase w-24">Candidate</span>
+        <a href={ShowRequirementCandidateAction { requirementCandidateId = c.id }}
+           class="text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{c.title}</a>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+renderWidgetRow :: Widget -> Html
+renderWidgetRow w = [hsx|
+    <div class="flex items-center gap-2">
+        <span class="text-xs font-semibold text-gray-400 uppercase w-24">Widget</span>
+        <a href={ShowWidgetAction { widgetId = w.id }}
+           class="text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{w.name}</a>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+renderSignal :: OutcomeSignal -> Html
+renderSignal sig = [hsx|
+    <div class="flex items-center gap-3 py-2 border-b border-gray-100 last:border-0">
+        <span class={signalTypeClass sig.signalType <> " text-xs px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-medium"}>
+            {sig.signalType}
+        </span>
+        {maybe mempty renderSignalValue sig.value}
+        <span class="text-xs text-gray-400 ml-auto">{show sig.observedAt}</span>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+renderSignalValue :: Double -> Html
+renderSignalValue v = [hsx|
+    <span class="text-sm text-gray-700 font-mono">{show v}</span>
+|]
+
+renderNoEvaluationForm :: Id DeploymentRecord -> Html
+renderNoEvaluationForm deploymentRecordId = [hsx|
+    <form method="POST" action={EvaluateChangeAction { deploymentRecordId }}
+          class="space-y-3">
+        {hiddenField "authenticity_token"}
+        <div>
+            <label class="block text-xs font-medium text-gray-600 mb-1">
+                Score (1–5) <span class="text-red-500">*</span>
+            </label>
+            <select name="score"
+                    class="text-sm border border-gray-300 rounded px-3 py-1.5">
+                <option value="1">1 ★☆☆☆☆ — very poor</option>
+                <option value="2">2 ★★☆☆☆ — poor</option>
+                <option value="3">3 ★★★☆☆ — neutral</option>
+                <option value="4">4 ★★★★☆ — good</option>
+                <option value="5">5 ★★★★★ — excellent</option>
+            </select>
+        </div>
+        <div>
+            <label class="block text-xs font-medium text-gray-600 mb-1">
+                Rationale <span class="text-red-500">*</span>
+            </label>
+            <textarea name="rationale" rows="2" required
+                      class="w-full text-sm border border-gray-300 rounded px-3 py-1.5"
+                      placeholder="Why this score?"></textarea>
+        </div>
+        <button type="submit"
+                class="text-sm bg-indigo-600 text-white px-4 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-indigo-700">
+            Evaluate
+        </button>
+    </form>
+|]
+
+renderEvaluation :: ChangeEvaluation -> Html
+renderEvaluation ev = [hsx|
+    <div class="space-y-2">
+        <div class="flex items-center gap-2">
+            <span class={scoreClass ev.score <> " text-base px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-medium"}>
+                {starsFor ev.score}
+            </span>
+        </div>
+        <p class="text-sm text-gray-700">{ev.rationale}</p>
+        <p class="text-xs text-gray-400">{show ev.evaluatedAt}</p>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+renderComparison :: (PeriodMetrics, PeriodMetrics) -> Html
+renderComparison (before, after) = [hsx|
+    <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-4">
+        <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">
+            Pre/Post Comparison (±30 days)
+        </h2>
+        <table class="w-full text-sm">
+            <thead class="border-b border-gray-200">
+                <tr>
+                    <th class="text-left py-2 text-xs font-semibold text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wide">Metric</th>
+                    <th class="text-right py-2 text-xs font-semibold text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wide">Before</th>
+                    <th class="text-right py-2 text-xs font-semibold text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wide">After</th>
+                    <th class="text-right py-2 text-xs font-semibold text-gray-500 uppercase tracking-wide">Delta</th>
+                </tr>
+            </thead>
+            <tbody>
+                {renderMetricRow "Interaction events" before.eventCount after.eventCount False}
+                {renderMetricRow "Annotations (total)" before.annotationCount after.annotationCount True}
+                {renderMetricRow "— low severity" before.lowCount after.lowCount True}
+                {renderMetricRow "— medium severity" before.mediumCount after.mediumCount True}
+                {renderMetricRow "— high severity" before.highCount after.highCount True}
+                {renderMetricRow "— critical severity" before.criticalCount after.criticalCount True}
+                {renderRateRow before after}
+            </tbody>
+        </table>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+renderMetricRow :: Text -> Int -> Int -> Bool -> Html
+renderMetricRow label b a lowerIsBetter = [hsx|
+    <tr class="border-b border-gray-50">
+        <td class="py-2 text-gray-600">{label}</td>
+        <td class="py-2 text-right text-gray-700">{showNA b}</td>
+        <td class="py-2 text-right text-gray-700">{showNA a}</td>
+        <td class="py-2 text-right">
+            <span class={deltaClass (a - b) lowerIsBetter}>{showDelta (a - b)}</span>
+        </td>
+    </tr>
+|]
+  where
+    showNA n = if n == 0 then "—" else show n
+    showDelta d
+        | d == 0    = "—"
+        | d > 0     = "+" <> show d
+        | otherwise = show d
+
+renderRateRow :: PeriodMetrics -> PeriodMetrics -> Html
+renderRateRow before after = [hsx|
+    <tr>
+        <td class="py-2 text-gray-600 font-medium">High/critical rate</td>
+        <td class="py-2 text-right text-gray-700">{formatRate (highCriticalRate before)}</td>
+        <td class="py-2 text-right text-gray-700">{formatRate (highCriticalRate after)}</td>
+        <td class="py-2 text-right">
+            <span class={rateClass (highCriticalRate after) (highCriticalRate before)}>
+                {formatRateDelta (highCriticalRate after - highCriticalRate before)}
+            </span>
+        </td>
+    </tr>
+|]
+  where
+    formatRate r = show (round (r * 100) :: Int) <> "%"
+    formatRateDelta d
+        | abs d < 0.001 = "—"
+        | d > 0         = "+" <> show (round (d * 100) :: Int) <> "%"
+        | otherwise     = show (round (d * 100) :: Int) <> "%"
+
+deltaClass :: Int -> Bool -> Text
+deltaClass 0 _    = "text-gray-400"
+deltaClass d True
+    | d < 0     = "text-green-600 font-medium"
+    | otherwise = "text-red-600 font-medium"
+deltaClass d False
+    | d > 0     = "text-green-600 font-medium"
+    | otherwise = "text-red-600 font-medium"
+
+rateClass :: Double -> Double -> Text
+rateClass after before
+    | abs (after - before) < 0.001 = "text-gray-400"
+    | after < before               = "text-green-600 font-medium"
+    | otherwise                    = "text-red-600 font-medium"
+
+signalTypeClass :: Text -> Text
+signalTypeClass "improved"     = "bg-green-100 text-green-800"
+signalTypeClass "regressed"    = "bg-red-100 text-red-800"
+signalTypeClass "neutral"      = "bg-gray-100 text-gray-600"
+signalTypeClass "inconclusive" = "bg-yellow-100 text-yellow-800"
+signalTypeClass _              = "bg-gray-100 text-gray-600"
+
+outcomeClass :: Text -> Text
+outcomeClass "accepted"  = "bg-green-100 text-green-800"
+outcomeClass "rejected"  = "bg-red-100 text-red-800"
+outcomeClass "deferred"  = "bg-gray-100 text-gray-600"
+outcomeClass "split"     = "bg-purple-100 text-purple-800"
+outcomeClass "merged"    = "bg-indigo-100 text-indigo-800"
+outcomeClass "reframed"  = "bg-orange-100 text-orange-800"
+outcomeClass _           = "bg-gray-100 text-gray-600"
+
+scoreClass :: Int16 -> Text
+scoreClass n
+    | n <= 2    = "bg-red-100 text-red-800"
+    | n == 3    = "bg-yellow-100 text-yellow-800"
+    | otherwise = "bg-green-100 text-green-800"
+
+starsFor :: Int16 -> Text
+starsFor n = pack (Prelude.replicate (fromIntegral n) '★') <> pack (Prelude.replicate (5 - fromIntegral n) '☆')
+
+userName :: [User] -> Maybe (Id User) -> Text
+userName _     Nothing    = "—"
+userName users (Just uid) = maybe "(unknown)" (.name) (find (\u -> u.id == uid) users)

Web/View/Hubs/AntifragilityDashboard.hs

@@ -0,0 +1,259 @@
+module Web.View.Hubs.AntifragilityDashboard where
+
+import Web.Types
+import Generated.Types
+import IHP.Prelude
+import IHP.ViewPrelude
+
+data AntifragilityDashboardView = AntifragilityDashboardView
+    { hub                 :: !Hub
+    , widgets             :: ![Widget]
+    , allDeployments      :: ![DeploymentRecord]
+    , allDecisions        :: ![DecisionRecord]
+    , allSignals          :: ![OutcomeSignal]
+    , allEvaluations      :: ![ChangeEvaluation]
+    , allImplRefs         :: ![ImplementationChangeReference]
+    , regressionWidgetIds :: ![Id Widget]
+    , recurrenceLeaderboard :: ![(Id Widget, Int)]
+    }
+
+instance View AntifragilityDashboardView where
+    html AntifragilityDashboardView { .. } = [hsx|
+        <div class="mb-6 flex items-center justify-between">
+            <div>
+                <div class="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm text-gray-500 mb-1">
+                    <a href={HubsAction} class="hover:text-gray-700">Hubs</a>
+                    <span>/</span>
+                    <a href={ShowHubAction { hubId = hub.id }} class="hover:text-gray-700">{hub.name}</a>
+                    <span>/</span>
+                    <span>Antifragility</span>
+                </div>
+                <h1 class="text-2xl font-semibold">Antifragility Dashboard — {hub.name}</h1>
+            </div>
+            <div class="flex gap-2">
+                <a href={TriageDashboardAction { hubId = hub.id }}
+                   class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
+                    Triage
+                </a>
+                <a href={GovernanceDashboardAction { hubId = hub.id }}
+                   class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
+                    Governance
+                </a>
+                <a href={ShowHubAction { hubId = hub.id }}
+                   class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
+                    Hub
+                </a>
+            </div>
+        </div>
+
+        <!-- KPI row -->
+        <div class="grid grid-cols-4 gap-4 mb-6">
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-4 py-3 text-center">
+                <div class="text-2xl font-bold">{show (length allDeployments)}</div>
+                <div class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-0.5">deployments</div>
+            </div>
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-4 py-3 text-center">
+                <div class="text-2xl font-bold">{avgScoreText}</div>
+                <div class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-0.5">avg evaluation</div>
+            </div>
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-4 py-3 text-center">
+                <div class="text-2xl font-bold">{improvedPctText}</div>
+                <div class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-0.5">improved signals</div>
+            </div>
+            <div class="bg-red-50 rounded-lg border border-red-200 px-4 py-3 text-center">
+                <div class="text-2xl font-bold text-red-700">{show (length regressionWidgetIds)}</div>
+                <div class="text-xs text-red-500 mt-0.5">regressions</div>
+            </div>
+        </div>
+
+        <!-- Regression alerts -->
+        {if null regressionWidgetIds then mempty else [hsx|
+        <div class="bg-red-50 border border-red-200 rounded-lg px-6 py-4 mb-6">
+            <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-red-700 mb-3">⚠ Regression Alerts</h2>
+            <div class="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
+                {forEach regressedWidgets renderRegressedBadge}
+            </div>
+        </div>
+        |]}
+
+        <!-- Open gaps: decisions with impl refs but no deployment -->
+        <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-5 mb-6">
+            <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">
+                Open Gaps
+                <span class="text-xs font-normal text-gray-400 ml-2">
+                    (decisions with impl refs but no deployment recorded)
+                </span>
+            </h2>
+            {if null openGaps
+                then [hsx|<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">All decisions with impl refs have deployments.</p>|]
+                else [hsx|
+                    <div class="space-y-1">
+                        {forEach openGaps renderGapRow}
+                    </div>
+                |]}
+        </div>
+
+        <!-- Recent deployments -->
+        <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-5 mb-6">
+            <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">Recent Deployments</h2>
+            {if null recentDeploys
+                then [hsx|<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">No deployments yet.</p>|]
+                else [hsx|
+                    <table class="w-full text-sm">
+                        <thead class="border-b border-gray-100">
+                            <tr>
+                                <th class="text-left py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Version</th>
+                                <th class="text-left py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Decision</th>
+                                <th class="text-right py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Signals</th>
+                                <th class="text-right py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Eval</th>
+                                <th class="text-right py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Deployed</th>
+                            </tr>
+                        </thead>
+                        <tbody class="divide-y divide-gray-50">
+                            {forEach recentDeploys (renderDeployRow allDecisions allSignals allEvaluations)}
+                        </tbody>
+                    </table>
+                |]}
+        </div>
+
+        <!-- Recurrence leaderboard -->
+        <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-5">
+            <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">Recurrence Leaderboard</h2>
+            {if null recurrenceLeaderboard
+                then [hsx|<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">No recurring widgets detected.</p>|]
+                else [hsx|
+                    <table class="w-full text-sm">
+                        <thead class="border-b border-gray-100">
+                            <tr>
+                                <th class="text-left py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Widget</th>
+                                <th class="text-right py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Cycles</th>
+                            </tr>
+                        </thead>
+                        <tbody class="divide-y divide-gray-50">
+                            {forEach recurrenceLeaderboard (renderRecurrenceRow widgets)}
+                        </tbody>
+                    </table>
+                |]}
+        </div>
+    |]
+  where
+    deployedIds    = map (.id) allDeployments
+    openGaps       = filter (\d -> any (\r -> r.decisionId == d.id) allImplRefs
+                                && not (any (\dp -> dp.decisionId == d.id) allDeployments))
+                            allDecisions
+    recentDeploys  = take 20 (sortByDesc (.deployedAt) allDeployments)
+    regressedWidgets = filter (\w -> w.id `elem` regressionWidgetIds) widgets
+    avgScoreText
+        | null allEvaluations = "—"
+        | otherwise =
+            let avg = fromIntegral (sum (map (.score) allEvaluations)) / fromIntegral (length allEvaluations) :: Double
+            in show (round avg :: Int) <> "/5"
+    improvedPctText
+        | null allSignals = "—"
+        | otherwise =
+            let improved = length (filter (\s -> s.signalType == "improved") allSignals)
+                pct = (fromIntegral improved * 100 `div` length allSignals) :: Int
+            in show pct <> "%"
+
+sortByDesc :: Ord b => (a -> b) -> [a] -> [a]
+sortByDesc f = sortBy (\a b -> compare (f b) (f a))
+
+renderRegressedBadge :: Widget -> Html
+renderRegressedBadge w = [hsx|
+    <a href={ShowWidgetAction { widgetId = w.id }}
+       class="text-xs bg-red-100 text-red-800 border border-red-300 rounded px-2 py-1 hover:bg-red-200">
+        {w.name}
+    </a>
+|]
+
+renderGapRow :: DecisionRecord -> Html
+renderGapRow d = [hsx|
+    <div class="flex items-center justify-between py-1.5 text-sm">
+        <a href={ShowDecisionRecordAction { decisionRecordId = d.id }}
+           class="text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{d.title}</a>
+        <span class={outcomeClass d.outcome <> " text-xs px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-medium"}>
+            {d.outcome}
+        </span>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+renderDeployRow :: [DecisionRecord] -> [OutcomeSignal] -> [ChangeEvaluation] -> DeploymentRecord -> Html
+renderDeployRow decisions signals evals dr = [hsx|
+    <tr>
+        <td class="py-2 pr-4">
+            <a href={ShowDeploymentRecordAction { deploymentRecordId = dr.id }}
+               class="font-mono text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{dr.versionRef}</a>
+        </td>
+        <td class="py-2 pr-4 text-gray-600">{decisionTitle}</td>
+        <td class="py-2 pr-4 text-right">
+            {renderSignalSummary drSignals}
+        </td>
+        <td class="py-2 pr-4 text-right">
+            {maybe [hsx|<span class="text-gray-400 text-xs">—</span>|] renderEvalBadge mScore}
+        </td>
+        <td class="py-2 text-right text-xs text-gray-400">{show dr.deployedAt}</td>
+    </tr>
+|]
+  where
+    decisionTitle = maybe "—" (.title) (find (\d -> d.id == dr.decisionId) decisions)
+    drSignals     = filter (\s -> s.deploymentId == dr.id) signals
+    mScore        = fmap (.score) (find (\e -> e.deploymentId == dr.id) evals)
+
+renderSignalSummary :: [OutcomeSignal] -> Html
+renderSignalSummary [] = [hsx|<span class="text-gray-400 text-xs">—</span>|]
+renderSignalSummary signals = [hsx|
+    <div class="flex gap-1 justify-end">
+        {forEach (take 3 signals) (\s -> [hsx|
+            <span class={signalDot s.signalType}></span>
+        |])}
+    </div>
+|]
+
+signalDot :: Text -> Text
+signalDot "improved"     = "inline-block w-2 h-2 rounded-full bg-green-500"
+signalDot "regressed"    = "inline-block w-2 h-2 rounded-full bg-red-500"
+signalDot "neutral"      = "inline-block w-2 h-2 rounded-full bg-gray-400"
+signalDot "inconclusive" = "inline-block w-2 h-2 rounded-full bg-yellow-400"
+signalDot _              = "inline-block w-2 h-2 rounded-full bg-gray-300"
+
+renderEvalBadge :: Int16 -> Html
+renderEvalBadge score = [hsx|
+    <span class={scoreClass score <> " text-xs px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-medium"}>
+        {show score}/5
+    </span>
+|]
+
+renderRecurrenceRow :: [Widget] -> (Id Widget, Int) -> Html
+renderRecurrenceRow widgets (wid, count) = [hsx|
+    <tr>
+        <td class="py-2">
+            {maybe [hsx|<span class="text-gray-500">—</span>|] renderWidgetLink mWidget}
+        </td>
+        <td class="py-2 text-right">
+            <span class="text-sm font-semibold text-yellow-700">⟳ {show count}</span>
+        </td>
+    </tr>
+|]
+  where
+    mWidget = find (\w -> w.id == wid) widgets
+
+renderWidgetLink :: Widget -> Html
+renderWidgetLink w = [hsx|
+    <a href={ShowWidgetAction { widgetId = w.id }}
+       class="text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{w.name}</a>
+|]
+
+outcomeClass :: Text -> Text
+outcomeClass "accepted"  = "bg-green-100 text-green-800"
+outcomeClass "rejected"  = "bg-red-100 text-red-800"
+outcomeClass "deferred"  = "bg-gray-100 text-gray-600"
+outcomeClass "split"     = "bg-purple-100 text-purple-800"
+outcomeClass "merged"    = "bg-indigo-100 text-indigo-800"
+outcomeClass "reframed"  = "bg-orange-100 text-orange-800"
+outcomeClass _           = "bg-gray-100 text-gray-600"
+
+scoreClass :: Int16 -> Text
+scoreClass n
+    | n <= 2    = "bg-red-100 text-red-800"
+    | n == 3    = "bg-yellow-100 text-yellow-800"
+    | otherwise = "bg-green-100 text-green-800"

Web/View/Hubs/GovernanceDashboard.hs

@@ -6,13 +6,14 @@ import IHP.Prelude
 import IHP.ViewPrelude
 
 data GovernanceDashboardView = GovernanceDashboardView
-    { hub              :: !Hub
-    , widgets          :: ![Widget]
-    , allCandidates    :: ![RequirementCandidate]
-    , allRequirements  :: ![Requirement]
-    , recentDecisions  :: ![DecisionRecord]
-    , allDecisions     :: ![DecisionRecord]
-    , allAnnotations   :: ![Annotation]
+    { hub                 :: !Hub
+    , widgets             :: ![Widget]
+    , allCandidates       :: ![RequirementCandidate]
+    , allRequirements     :: ![Requirement]
+    , recentDecisions     :: ![DecisionRecord]
+    , allDecisions        :: ![DecisionRecord]
+    , allAnnotations      :: ![Annotation]
+    , regressionWidgetIds :: ![Id Widget]
     }
 
 instance View GovernanceDashboardView where
@@ -33,6 +34,10 @@ instance View GovernanceDashboardView where
                    class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
                     Triage Dashboard
                 </a>
+                <a href={AntifragilityDashboardAction { hubId = hub.id }}
+                   class="text-sm border border-green-300 text-green-700 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-green-50">
+                    Antifragility
+                </a>
                 <a href={ShowHubAction { hubId = hub.id }}
                    class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
                     Hub Overview
@@ -40,11 +45,24 @@ instance View GovernanceDashboardView where
             </div>
         </div>
 
-        <!-- KPI row: decision outcomes -->
-        <div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-4 mb-6 sm:grid-cols-6">
+        <!-- KPI row: decision outcomes + regression -->
+        <div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-4 mb-4 sm:grid-cols-7">
             {forEach outcomeList (\o -> renderKpiCard o (countOutcome allDecisions o))}
+            <div class="bg-red-50 text-red-800 rounded-lg px-4 py-3 text-center">
+                <div class="text-2xl font-bold">{show (length regressionWidgetIds)}</div>
+                <div class="text-xs mt-0.5 opacity-75">regressions</div>
+            </div>
         </div>
 
+        {if null regressionWidgetIds then mempty else [hsx|
+        <div class="bg-red-50 border border-red-200 rounded-lg px-6 py-4 mb-6">
+            <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-red-700 mb-2">⚠ Regressed Widgets</h2>
+            <div class="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
+                {forEach regressedWidgets renderRegressedBadge}
+            </div>
+        </div>
+        |]}
+
         <!-- Open requirements awaiting decision -->
         <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-5 mb-6">
             <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">
@@ -99,7 +117,8 @@ instance View GovernanceDashboardView where
         </div>
     |]
   where
-    awaitingDecision = filter (isAwaitingDecision allDecisions) allRequirements
+    awaitingDecision  = filter (isAwaitingDecision allDecisions) allRequirements
+    regressedWidgets  = filter (\w -> w.id `elem` regressionWidgetIds) widgets
 
 outcomeList :: [Text]
 outcomeList = ["accepted", "rejected", "deferred", "split", "merged", "reframed"]
@@ -192,6 +211,14 @@ renderCoverageRow annotations candidates requirements decisions w = [hsx|
     widgetReqIds = map (.id) (filter (\r -> r.sourceCandidateId `elem` candidateIds) requirements)
     hasDecision  = any (\d -> d.requirementId `elem` map Just widgetReqIds) decisions
 
+renderRegressedBadge :: Widget -> Html
+renderRegressedBadge w = [hsx|
+    <a href={ShowWidgetAction { widgetId = w.id }}
+       class="text-xs bg-red-100 text-red-800 border border-red-300 rounded px-2 py-1 hover:bg-red-200">
+        {w.name}
+    </a>
+|]
+
 coverageMark :: Bool -> Html
 coverageMark True  = [hsx|<span class="text-green-600 font-bold">✓</span>|]
 coverageMark False = [hsx|<span class="text-gray-300">✗</span>|]

Web/View/Hubs/Show.hs

@@ -37,6 +37,10 @@ instance View ShowView where
                        class="text-sm border border-purple-300 text-purple-700 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-purple-50">
                         Governance Dashboard
                     </a>
+                    <a href={AntifragilityDashboardAction { hubId = hub.id }}
+                       class="text-sm border border-green-300 text-green-700 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-green-50">
+                        Antifragility
+                    </a>
                     <a href={EditHubAction { hubId = hub.id }}
                        class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
                         Edit

Web/View/Widgets/Show.hs

@@ -7,11 +7,14 @@ import IHP.ViewPrelude
 import Application.Helper.View (widgetEnvelope)
 
 data ShowView = ShowView
-    { widget      :: !Widget
-    , hub         :: !Hub
-    , versions    :: ![WidgetVersion]
-    , events      :: ![InteractionEvent]
-    , annotations :: ![Annotation]
+    { widget        :: !Widget
+    , hub           :: !Hub
+    , versions      :: ![WidgetVersion]
+    , events        :: ![InteractionEvent]
+    , annotations   :: ![Annotation]
+    , recentSignals :: ![OutcomeSignal]
+    , isRegressed   :: !Bool
+    , cycleCount    :: !Int
     }
 
 instance View ShowView where
@@ -24,6 +27,24 @@ instance View ShowView where
             <span>{widget.name}</span>
         </div>
 
+        {if cycleCount >= 2 then [hsx|
+        <div class="mb-2 flex items-center gap-2 bg-yellow-50 border border-yellow-200 rounded-lg px-4 py-2">
+            <span class="text-yellow-700 font-semibold text-sm">⟳ {show cycleCount} cycles</span>
+            <span class="text-yellow-600 text-xs">
+                Recurring friction — this widget has been through {show cycleCount} improvement cycles.
+            </span>
+        </div>
+        |] else mempty}
+
+        {if isRegressed then [hsx|
+        <div class="mb-4 flex items-center gap-2 bg-red-50 border border-red-200 rounded-lg px-4 py-3">
+            <span class="text-red-600 font-semibold text-sm">⚠ Regression detected</span>
+            <span class="text-red-500 text-xs">
+                This widget had an improved signal but has since received high/critical annotations.
+            </span>
+        </div>
+        |] else mempty}
+
         {widgetEnvelope widget [hsx|
             <div class="flex items-center justify-between mb-4">
                 <div>
@@ -95,6 +116,15 @@ instance View ShowView where
             </div>
         </section>
 
+        {if null recentSignals then mempty else [hsx|
+        <section class="mb-8">
+            <h2 class="text-lg font-medium mb-3">Recent Outcome Signals</h2>
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 divide-y divide-gray-100">
+                {forEach recentSignals renderSignalRow}
+            </div>
+        </section>
+        |]}
+
         <section>
             <h2 class="text-lg font-medium mb-3">Version History</h2>
             <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 overflow-hidden">
@@ -160,3 +190,21 @@ renderCategoryRow (cat, count) = [hsx|
         <span class="font-semibold">{show count}</span>
     </div>
 |]
+
+renderSignalRow :: OutcomeSignal -> Html
+renderSignalRow sig = [hsx|
+    <div class="flex items-center gap-3 px-4 py-3 text-sm">
+        <span class={signalTypeClass sig.signalType <> " text-xs px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-medium"}>
+            {sig.signalType}
+        </span>
+        {maybe mempty (\v -> [hsx|<span class="font-mono text-gray-700">{show v}</span>|]) sig.value}
+        <span class="text-xs text-gray-400 ml-auto">{show sig.observedAt}</span>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+signalTypeClass :: Text -> Text
+signalTypeClass "improved"     = "bg-green-100 text-green-800"
+signalTypeClass "regressed"    = "bg-red-100 text-red-800"
+signalTypeClass "neutral"      = "bg-gray-100 text-gray-600"
+signalTypeClass "inconclusive" = "bg-yellow-100 text-yellow-800"
+signalTypeClass _              = "bg-gray-100 text-gray-600"