feat(P4): IHF Phase 4 complete — Outcome Observation and Antifragility Loop

Closes the IHF improvement loop. Full antifragility chain now traversable:
Widget → Annotation → Candidate → Requirement → Decision → Deployment → OutcomeSignal

New artifacts:
- DeploymentRecord (immutable, links DecisionRecord to a deployed version)
- OutcomeSignal (append-only; DB trigger prevents UPDATE/DELETE)
- ChangeEvaluation (one-per-deployment; UNIQUE constraint; 1–5 score)

New capabilities:
- DeploymentRecordsController (index, show, new, create)
- RecordOutcomeSignalAction — capture improved/regressed/neutral/inconclusive signals
- Pre/post comparison panel on deployment show (±30-day event/annotation counts)
- Regression detection — improved signal followed by high/critical annotation
- ChangeEvaluation — idempotent score+rationale per deployment
- Recurrence tracking — cycle count per widget, leaderboard
- AntifragilityDashboardAction (autoRefresh, 5 panels) per hub
- Phase 4 integration tests (T01–T08 logic coverage)
- docs/phase4-summary.md; SCOPE.md updated to Phase 4 complete

State Hub: workstream 07e9c860 → completed

Co-Authored-By: Claude Sonnet 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Web/View/Hubs/AntifragilityDashboard.hs

@@ -0,0 +1,259 @@
+module Web.View.Hubs.AntifragilityDashboard where
+
+import Web.Types
+import Generated.Types
+import IHP.Prelude
+import IHP.ViewPrelude
+
+data AntifragilityDashboardView = AntifragilityDashboardView
+    { hub                 :: !Hub
+    , widgets             :: ![Widget]
+    , allDeployments      :: ![DeploymentRecord]
+    , allDecisions        :: ![DecisionRecord]
+    , allSignals          :: ![OutcomeSignal]
+    , allEvaluations      :: ![ChangeEvaluation]
+    , allImplRefs         :: ![ImplementationChangeReference]
+    , regressionWidgetIds :: ![Id Widget]
+    , recurrenceLeaderboard :: ![(Id Widget, Int)]
+    }
+
+instance View AntifragilityDashboardView where
+    html AntifragilityDashboardView { .. } = [hsx|
+        <div class="mb-6 flex items-center justify-between">
+            <div>
+                <div class="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm text-gray-500 mb-1">
+                    <a href={HubsAction} class="hover:text-gray-700">Hubs</a>
+                    <span>/</span>
+                    <a href={ShowHubAction { hubId = hub.id }} class="hover:text-gray-700">{hub.name}</a>
+                    <span>/</span>
+                    <span>Antifragility</span>
+                </div>
+                <h1 class="text-2xl font-semibold">Antifragility Dashboard — {hub.name}</h1>
+            </div>
+            <div class="flex gap-2">
+                <a href={TriageDashboardAction { hubId = hub.id }}
+                   class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
+                    Triage
+                </a>
+                <a href={GovernanceDashboardAction { hubId = hub.id }}
+                   class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
+                    Governance
+                </a>
+                <a href={ShowHubAction { hubId = hub.id }}
+                   class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
+                    Hub
+                </a>
+            </div>
+        </div>
+
+        <!-- KPI row -->
+        <div class="grid grid-cols-4 gap-4 mb-6">
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-4 py-3 text-center">
+                <div class="text-2xl font-bold">{show (length allDeployments)}</div>
+                <div class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-0.5">deployments</div>
+            </div>
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-4 py-3 text-center">
+                <div class="text-2xl font-bold">{avgScoreText}</div>
+                <div class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-0.5">avg evaluation</div>
+            </div>
+            <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-4 py-3 text-center">
+                <div class="text-2xl font-bold">{improvedPctText}</div>
+                <div class="text-xs text-gray-500 mt-0.5">improved signals</div>
+            </div>
+            <div class="bg-red-50 rounded-lg border border-red-200 px-4 py-3 text-center">
+                <div class="text-2xl font-bold text-red-700">{show (length regressionWidgetIds)}</div>
+                <div class="text-xs text-red-500 mt-0.5">regressions</div>
+            </div>
+        </div>
+
+        <!-- Regression alerts -->
+        {if null regressionWidgetIds then mempty else [hsx|
+        <div class="bg-red-50 border border-red-200 rounded-lg px-6 py-4 mb-6">
+            <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-red-700 mb-3">⚠ Regression Alerts</h2>
+            <div class="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
+                {forEach regressedWidgets renderRegressedBadge}
+            </div>
+        </div>
+        |]}
+
+        <!-- Open gaps: decisions with impl refs but no deployment -->
+        <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-5 mb-6">
+            <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">
+                Open Gaps
+                <span class="text-xs font-normal text-gray-400 ml-2">
+                    (decisions with impl refs but no deployment recorded)
+                </span>
+            </h2>
+            {if null openGaps
+                then [hsx|<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">All decisions with impl refs have deployments.</p>|]
+                else [hsx|
+                    <div class="space-y-1">
+                        {forEach openGaps renderGapRow}
+                    </div>
+                |]}
+        </div>
+
+        <!-- Recent deployments -->
+        <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-5 mb-6">
+            <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">Recent Deployments</h2>
+            {if null recentDeploys
+                then [hsx|<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">No deployments yet.</p>|]
+                else [hsx|
+                    <table class="w-full text-sm">
+                        <thead class="border-b border-gray-100">
+                            <tr>
+                                <th class="text-left py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Version</th>
+                                <th class="text-left py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Decision</th>
+                                <th class="text-right py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Signals</th>
+                                <th class="text-right py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Eval</th>
+                                <th class="text-right py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Deployed</th>
+                            </tr>
+                        </thead>
+                        <tbody class="divide-y divide-gray-50">
+                            {forEach recentDeploys (renderDeployRow allDecisions allSignals allEvaluations)}
+                        </tbody>
+                    </table>
+                |]}
+        </div>
+
+        <!-- Recurrence leaderboard -->
+        <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-5">
+            <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">Recurrence Leaderboard</h2>
+            {if null recurrenceLeaderboard
+                then [hsx|<p class="text-sm text-gray-400">No recurring widgets detected.</p>|]
+                else [hsx|
+                    <table class="w-full text-sm">
+                        <thead class="border-b border-gray-100">
+                            <tr>
+                                <th class="text-left py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Widget</th>
+                                <th class="text-right py-2 text-xs font-medium text-gray-500">Cycles</th>
+                            </tr>
+                        </thead>
+                        <tbody class="divide-y divide-gray-50">
+                            {forEach recurrenceLeaderboard (renderRecurrenceRow widgets)}
+                        </tbody>
+                    </table>
+                |]}
+        </div>
+    |]
+  where
+    deployedIds    = map (.id) allDeployments
+    openGaps       = filter (\d -> any (\r -> r.decisionId == d.id) allImplRefs
+                                && not (any (\dp -> dp.decisionId == d.id) allDeployments))
+                            allDecisions
+    recentDeploys  = take 20 (sortByDesc (.deployedAt) allDeployments)
+    regressedWidgets = filter (\w -> w.id `elem` regressionWidgetIds) widgets
+    avgScoreText
+        | null allEvaluations = "—"
+        | otherwise =
+            let avg = fromIntegral (sum (map (.score) allEvaluations)) / fromIntegral (length allEvaluations) :: Double
+            in show (round avg :: Int) <> "/5"
+    improvedPctText
+        | null allSignals = "—"
+        | otherwise =
+            let improved = length (filter (\s -> s.signalType == "improved") allSignals)
+                pct = (fromIntegral improved * 100 `div` length allSignals) :: Int
+            in show pct <> "%"
+
+sortByDesc :: Ord b => (a -> b) -> [a] -> [a]
+sortByDesc f = sortBy (\a b -> compare (f b) (f a))
+
+renderRegressedBadge :: Widget -> Html
+renderRegressedBadge w = [hsx|
+    <a href={ShowWidgetAction { widgetId = w.id }}
+       class="text-xs bg-red-100 text-red-800 border border-red-300 rounded px-2 py-1 hover:bg-red-200">
+        {w.name}
+    </a>
+|]
+
+renderGapRow :: DecisionRecord -> Html
+renderGapRow d = [hsx|
+    <div class="flex items-center justify-between py-1.5 text-sm">
+        <a href={ShowDecisionRecordAction { decisionRecordId = d.id }}
+           class="text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{d.title}</a>
+        <span class={outcomeClass d.outcome <> " text-xs px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-medium"}>
+            {d.outcome}
+        </span>
+    </div>
+|]
+
+renderDeployRow :: [DecisionRecord] -> [OutcomeSignal] -> [ChangeEvaluation] -> DeploymentRecord -> Html
+renderDeployRow decisions signals evals dr = [hsx|
+    <tr>
+        <td class="py-2 pr-4">
+            <a href={ShowDeploymentRecordAction { deploymentRecordId = dr.id }}
+               class="font-mono text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{dr.versionRef}</a>
+        </td>
+        <td class="py-2 pr-4 text-gray-600">{decisionTitle}</td>
+        <td class="py-2 pr-4 text-right">
+            {renderSignalSummary drSignals}
+        </td>
+        <td class="py-2 pr-4 text-right">
+            {maybe [hsx|<span class="text-gray-400 text-xs">—</span>|] renderEvalBadge mScore}
+        </td>
+        <td class="py-2 text-right text-xs text-gray-400">{show dr.deployedAt}</td>
+    </tr>
+|]
+  where
+    decisionTitle = maybe "—" (.title) (find (\d -> d.id == dr.decisionId) decisions)
+    drSignals     = filter (\s -> s.deploymentId == dr.id) signals
+    mScore        = fmap (.score) (find (\e -> e.deploymentId == dr.id) evals)
+
+renderSignalSummary :: [OutcomeSignal] -> Html
+renderSignalSummary [] = [hsx|<span class="text-gray-400 text-xs">—</span>|]
+renderSignalSummary signals = [hsx|
+    <div class="flex gap-1 justify-end">
+        {forEach (take 3 signals) (\s -> [hsx|
+            <span class={signalDot s.signalType}></span>
+        |])}
+    </div>
+|]
+
+signalDot :: Text -> Text
+signalDot "improved"     = "inline-block w-2 h-2 rounded-full bg-green-500"
+signalDot "regressed"    = "inline-block w-2 h-2 rounded-full bg-red-500"
+signalDot "neutral"      = "inline-block w-2 h-2 rounded-full bg-gray-400"
+signalDot "inconclusive" = "inline-block w-2 h-2 rounded-full bg-yellow-400"
+signalDot _              = "inline-block w-2 h-2 rounded-full bg-gray-300"
+
+renderEvalBadge :: Int16 -> Html
+renderEvalBadge score = [hsx|
+    <span class={scoreClass score <> " text-xs px-2 py-0.5 rounded font-medium"}>
+        {show score}/5
+    </span>
+|]
+
+renderRecurrenceRow :: [Widget] -> (Id Widget, Int) -> Html
+renderRecurrenceRow widgets (wid, count) = [hsx|
+    <tr>
+        <td class="py-2">
+            {maybe [hsx|<span class="text-gray-500">—</span>|] renderWidgetLink mWidget}
+        </td>
+        <td class="py-2 text-right">
+            <span class="text-sm font-semibold text-yellow-700">⟳ {show count}</span>
+        </td>
+    </tr>
+|]
+  where
+    mWidget = find (\w -> w.id == wid) widgets
+
+renderWidgetLink :: Widget -> Html
+renderWidgetLink w = [hsx|
+    <a href={ShowWidgetAction { widgetId = w.id }}
+       class="text-indigo-600 hover:text-indigo-800">{w.name}</a>
+|]
+
+outcomeClass :: Text -> Text
+outcomeClass "accepted"  = "bg-green-100 text-green-800"
+outcomeClass "rejected"  = "bg-red-100 text-red-800"
+outcomeClass "deferred"  = "bg-gray-100 text-gray-600"
+outcomeClass "split"     = "bg-purple-100 text-purple-800"
+outcomeClass "merged"    = "bg-indigo-100 text-indigo-800"
+outcomeClass "reframed"  = "bg-orange-100 text-orange-800"
+outcomeClass _           = "bg-gray-100 text-gray-600"
+
+scoreClass :: Int16 -> Text
+scoreClass n
+    | n <= 2    = "bg-red-100 text-red-800"
+    | n == 3    = "bg-yellow-100 text-yellow-800"
+    | otherwise = "bg-green-100 text-green-800"

Web/View/Hubs/GovernanceDashboard.hs

@@ -6,13 +6,14 @@ import IHP.Prelude
 import IHP.ViewPrelude
 
 data GovernanceDashboardView = GovernanceDashboardView
-    { hub              :: !Hub
-    , widgets          :: ![Widget]
-    , allCandidates    :: ![RequirementCandidate]
-    , allRequirements  :: ![Requirement]
-    , recentDecisions  :: ![DecisionRecord]
-    , allDecisions     :: ![DecisionRecord]
-    , allAnnotations   :: ![Annotation]
+    { hub                 :: !Hub
+    , widgets             :: ![Widget]
+    , allCandidates       :: ![RequirementCandidate]
+    , allRequirements     :: ![Requirement]
+    , recentDecisions     :: ![DecisionRecord]
+    , allDecisions        :: ![DecisionRecord]
+    , allAnnotations      :: ![Annotation]
+    , regressionWidgetIds :: ![Id Widget]
     }
 
 instance View GovernanceDashboardView where
@@ -33,6 +34,10 @@ instance View GovernanceDashboardView where
                    class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
                     Triage Dashboard
                 </a>
+                <a href={AntifragilityDashboardAction { hubId = hub.id }}
+                   class="text-sm border border-green-300 text-green-700 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-green-50">
+                    Antifragility
+                </a>
                 <a href={ShowHubAction { hubId = hub.id }}
                    class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
                     Hub Overview
@@ -40,11 +45,24 @@ instance View GovernanceDashboardView where
             </div>
         </div>
 
-        <!-- KPI row: decision outcomes -->
-        <div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-4 mb-6 sm:grid-cols-6">
+        <!-- KPI row: decision outcomes + regression -->
+        <div class="grid grid-cols-3 gap-4 mb-4 sm:grid-cols-7">
             {forEach outcomeList (\o -> renderKpiCard o (countOutcome allDecisions o))}
+            <div class="bg-red-50 text-red-800 rounded-lg px-4 py-3 text-center">
+                <div class="text-2xl font-bold">{show (length regressionWidgetIds)}</div>
+                <div class="text-xs mt-0.5 opacity-75">regressions</div>
+            </div>
         </div>
 
+        {if null regressionWidgetIds then mempty else [hsx|
+        <div class="bg-red-50 border border-red-200 rounded-lg px-6 py-4 mb-6">
+            <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-red-700 mb-2">⚠ Regressed Widgets</h2>
+            <div class="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
+                {forEach regressedWidgets renderRegressedBadge}
+            </div>
+        </div>
+        |]}
+
         <!-- Open requirements awaiting decision -->
         <div class="bg-white rounded-lg border border-gray-200 px-6 py-5 mb-6">
             <h2 class="text-sm font-semibold text-gray-700 mb-3">
@@ -99,7 +117,8 @@ instance View GovernanceDashboardView where
         </div>
     |]
   where
-    awaitingDecision = filter (isAwaitingDecision allDecisions) allRequirements
+    awaitingDecision  = filter (isAwaitingDecision allDecisions) allRequirements
+    regressedWidgets  = filter (\w -> w.id `elem` regressionWidgetIds) widgets
 
 outcomeList :: [Text]
 outcomeList = ["accepted", "rejected", "deferred", "split", "merged", "reframed"]
@@ -192,6 +211,14 @@ renderCoverageRow annotations candidates requirements decisions w = [hsx|
     widgetReqIds = map (.id) (filter (\r -> r.sourceCandidateId `elem` candidateIds) requirements)
     hasDecision  = any (\d -> d.requirementId `elem` map Just widgetReqIds) decisions
 
+renderRegressedBadge :: Widget -> Html
+renderRegressedBadge w = [hsx|
+    <a href={ShowWidgetAction { widgetId = w.id }}
+       class="text-xs bg-red-100 text-red-800 border border-red-300 rounded px-2 py-1 hover:bg-red-200">
+        {w.name}
+    </a>
+|]
+
 coverageMark :: Bool -> Html
 coverageMark True  = [hsx|<span class="text-green-600 font-bold">✓</span>|]
 coverageMark False = [hsx|<span class="text-gray-300">✗</span>|]

Web/View/Hubs/Show.hs

@@ -37,6 +37,10 @@ instance View ShowView where
                        class="text-sm border border-purple-300 text-purple-700 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-purple-50">
                         Governance Dashboard
                     </a>
+                    <a href={AntifragilityDashboardAction { hubId = hub.id }}
+                       class="text-sm border border-green-300 text-green-700 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-green-50">
+                        Antifragility
+                    </a>
                     <a href={EditHubAction { hubId = hub.id }}
                        class="text-sm border border-gray-300 px-3 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-gray-50">
                         Edit