adaptive-pricing/workplans/archived/260622-ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-economic-observatory-mvp.md

id, type, title, domain, repo, status, owner, topic_slug, created, updated, state_hub_workstream_id

id	type	title	domain	repo	status	owner	topic_slug	created	updated	state_hub_workstream_id
ADAPTIVE-WP-0002	workplan	Economic Observatory MVP (Coulomb Social)	financials	adaptive-pricing	finished	codex	helix-forge	2026-06-21	2026-07-02	9e0b7784-702a-4bc7-b7a1-3ff801f9c768

Economic Observatory MVP (Coulomb Social)

Build the first practical implementation of the Adaptive Pricing framework using Coulomb Social memberships as a live economic laboratory.

The MVP focuses on observation, measurement, simulation, and pricing discovery before introducing adaptive customer pricing.

Context

Current Product: Coulomb Social

Membership: €8.99/month subscription, managed through Bubble.io, paid through Stripe, grants repository and community access.

Fixed costs: Bubble.io subscription (~$35/month), domains, operational overhead.

Variable costs: Stripe transaction fees, future OpenRouter AI consumption costs.

MVP Vision

The MVP shall provide an Economic Observatory capable of answering:

1. What does a member actually cost?
2. What is the current CostFloor?
3. What margin exists at current pricing?
4. How much AI cost is generated by individual members?
5. Which pricing models appear viable?
6. Which customer segments emerge?
7. When would usage-based pricing become necessary?

Scope

Included: membership analytics, revenue tracking, cost tracking, OpenRouter cost attribution, CostFloor calculation, margin analysis, pricing simulations, pricing model registry.

Excluded: dynamic pricing, automated price changes, customer-tunable pricing, advanced LTV optimization, marketplace pricing.

Success Criteria

The MVP is successful when it can:

• Calculate CostFloor
• Calculate Margin
• Attribute AI cost to members
• Simulate alternative pricing models
• Compare subscription and usage-based models
• Explain economic outcomes
• Produce pricing recommendations

Completed 2026-06-22 via ledger-backed economics engine, web UI, file-based importers (Bubble / Stripe / OpenRouter), pricing simulator, credit wallets, and recommendation engine under projects/coulomb-pricing/observatory/.

Sprint 1 — Economic Foundations

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T01
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "fac96369-a037-4b7e-a1ed-92659bce7e4e"

Create the core economic model.

Done 2026-06-21: projects/coulomb-pricing/observatory/ with JSON registries under data/, economics snapshot engine, CLI dashboard (python3 -m observatory), sample report reports/economics-2026-06.md, and pytest suite.

Sprint 2 — Bubble.io Integration

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T02
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "42c181f9-9f4e-414e-aa94-b08c763abdef"

Import membership information.

Done 2026-06-22: observatory/importers/bubble.py (JSON export → membership.json), membership_analytics in dashboard API, sample export under data/imports/bubble-export.sample.json.

Sprint 3 — Stripe Integration

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T03
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "c7e308bc-5977-40c8-985a-9dca2ad3984a"

Capture actual revenue and payment costs.

Done 2026-06-22: observatory/importers/stripe.py (charge export → payment_records.json); live ledger already holds tegwick Stripe payments.

Sprint 4 — OpenRouter Cost Attribution

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T04
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "b2b61910-429c-46e9-93b8-25702ca337a7"

Track AI usage and cost.

Done 2026-06-22: observatory/importers/openrouter.py, data/usage_records.json, observatory/usage.py (per-member and per-model attribution in API).

Sprint 5 — Cost Allocation Engine

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T05
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "906009be-5670-428a-b6d1-2700c67e9c65"

Calculate economic reality.

Done 2026-06-22: observatory/allocation.py — fixed/variable split, cost floor, contribution margin in /api/dashboard (cost_allocation).

Sprint 6 — Pricing Simulator

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T06
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "cb735e7d-72ac-41df-97d4-e0133cb4bb84"

Evaluate pricing scenarios.

Done 2026-06-22: observatory/simulator.py compares active and candidate models from pricing-models.json (pricing_simulations in API).

Sprint 7 — Membership Credit System

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T07
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "aa8efb52-dbd8-4309-a15d-ea04d80c57f6"

Introduce AI credit accounting without billing.

Done 2026-06-22: data/credit_wallets.json, observatory/credits.py (observatory-only wallet balances in API).

Sprint 8 — Adaptive Pricing Prototype

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T08
status: done
priority: low
state_hub_task_id: "d8195bf0-5b0d-4fbd-9776-0b619097c64f"

Implement first pricing optimization logic.

Done 2026-06-22: observatory/recommendations.py — rules-based recommendations from cost floor, value range, market signals, and simulator output.

Economic Observatory Web UI

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T09
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "cfcfa53d-8e7d-464f-977c-d146dd252c35"

Whynot-design UI with ledger-backed API.

Done 2026-06-22: ui/ + observatory/server.py, whynot-design vendor sync, docs/UI-WORKFLOW.md. Three panels: Cost Floor, Value Range, Market Price.

Pricing Context Views

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T10
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "563cbded-ad2a-4ee8-8779-18f7e55970df"

Cost floor, value range, and market price observatory views.

Done 2026-06-22: observatory/pricing_context.py, data/value_range.json, data/market_signals.json, wired into UI and API.