adaptive-pricing/workplans/ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-economic-observatory-mvp.md

id, type, title, domain, repo, status, owner, topic_slug, created, updated, state_hub_workstream_id

id	type	title	domain	repo	status	owner	topic_slug	created	updated	state_hub_workstream_id
ADAPTIVE-WP-0002	workplan	Economic Observatory MVP (Coulomb Social)	helix_forge	adaptive-pricing	active	codex	helix-forge	2026-06-21	2026-06-21	9e0b7784-702a-4bc7-b7a1-3ff801f9c768

Economic Observatory MVP (Coulomb Social)

Build the first practical implementation of the Adaptive Pricing framework using Coulomb Social memberships as a live economic laboratory.

The MVP focuses on observation, measurement, simulation, and pricing discovery before introducing adaptive customer pricing.

Context

Current Product: Coulomb Social

Membership: €8.99/month subscription, managed through Bubble.io, paid through Stripe, grants repository and community access.

Fixed costs: Bubble.io subscription (~$35/month), domains, operational overhead.

Variable costs: Stripe transaction fees, future OpenRouter AI consumption costs.

MVP Vision

The MVP shall provide an Economic Observatory capable of answering:

1. What does a member actually cost?
2. What is the current CostFloor?
3. What margin exists at current pricing?
4. How much AI cost is generated by individual members?
5. Which pricing models appear viable?
6. Which customer segments emerge?
7. When would usage-based pricing become necessary?

Scope

Included: membership analytics, revenue tracking, cost tracking, OpenRouter cost attribution, CostFloor calculation, margin analysis, pricing simulations, pricing model registry.

Excluded: dynamic pricing, automated price changes, customer-tunable pricing, advanced LTV optimization, marketplace pricing.

Architecture

Bubble.io
    |
    +-- Membership Data
    |
Stripe
    |
    +-- Revenue Data
    +-- Fee Data
    |
OpenRouter
    |
    +-- Usage Data
    +-- Cost Data
    |
Adaptive Pricing MVP
    |
    +-- Cost Registry
    +-- Revenue Registry
    +-- Usage Registry
    +-- Cost Allocation Engine
    +-- Pricing Simulator
    +-- Reporting Dashboard

Success Criteria

The MVP is successful when it can:

• Calculate CostFloor
• Calculate Margin
• Attribute AI cost to members
• Simulate alternative pricing models
• Compare subscription and usage-based models
• Explain economic outcomes
• Produce pricing recommendations

Future Phases

Phase	Focus
Phase 2	Customer-visible AI credits
Phase 3	Usage-based billing
Phase 4	Customer-tunable pricing
Phase 5	Constraint-based pricing solver
Phase 6	Auto-Regulating Market Value Exploring Price Engine

The MVP should establish a data-driven foundation for pricing decisions and generate the real-world observations necessary to evolve toward adaptive pricing, customer-tunable pricing, and ultimately an auto-regulating market value exploration engine.

Sprint 1 — Economic Foundations

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T01
status: todo
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "fac96369-a037-4b7e-a1ed-92659bce7e4e"

Create the core economic model.

Deliverables: product model, pricing model registry, cost registry, revenue registry, membership registry.

Metrics: monthly revenue, monthly cost, cost per member, gross margin, active members.

Output: Economics Dashboard v1.

Sprint 2 — Bubble.io Integration

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T02
status: wait
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "42c181f9-9f4e-414e-aa94-b08c763abdef"

Import membership information.

Deliverables: Bubble membership importer, membership snapshots, active member tracking, historical growth tracking.

Metrics: total members, new members, churn, growth rate.

Output: Membership Analytics Dashboard.

Sprint 3 — Stripe Integration

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T03
status: wait
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "c7e308bc-5977-40c8-985a-9dca2ad3984a"

Capture actual revenue and payment costs.

Deliverables: Stripe synchronization, revenue tracking, fee tracking, refund tracking.

Metrics: net revenue, Stripe fees, revenue per member.

Output: Revenue Dashboard.

Sprint 4 — OpenRouter Cost Attribution

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T04
status: wait
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "b2b61910-429c-46e9-93b8-25702ca337a7"

Track AI usage and cost.

Deliverables: OpenRouter usage importer, cost attribution per user, model-level cost tracking, token accounting.

Metrics: cost per user, cost per model, total AI spend.

Output: AI Cost Dashboard.

Sprint 5 — Cost Allocation Engine

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T05
status: wait
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "906009be-5670-428a-b6d1-2700c67e9c65"

Calculate economic reality.

Deliverables:

• Fixed cost allocation (Bubble.io, domains, infrastructure)
• Variable cost allocation (Stripe fees, OpenRouter costs)
• CostFloor, contribution margin, cost per member calculations

Output: CostFloor Report.

Sprint 6 — Pricing Simulator

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T06
status: wait
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "cb735e7d-72ac-41df-97d4-e0133cb4bb84"

Evaluate pricing scenarios.

Example scenarios:

• Current: €8.99/month, unlimited access
• Membership + credits: €8.99/month with included AI allowance
• Membership + overage: €8.99/month with included credits and usage-based overage
• Lower subscription: lower base fee with higher usage fees

Output: Pricing Explorer.

Sprint 7 — Membership Credit System

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T07
status: wait
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "aa8efb52-dbd8-4309-a15d-ea04d80c57f6"

Introduce AI credit accounting without billing.

Deliverables: credit wallet, monthly allowance, usage tracking, remaining balance tracking.

Output: Member Usage Dashboard.

Sprint 8 — Adaptive Pricing Prototype

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0002-T08
status: wait
priority: low
state_hub_task_id: "d8195bf0-5b0d-4fbd-9776-0b619097c64f"

Implement first pricing optimization logic.

Deliverables: pricing parameter model, constraint model, seller economics model, comparable customer LTV prototype, pricing recommendation engine.

Output: Adaptive Pricing Prototype v1.