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adaptive-pricing/workplans/ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-comparable-customer-ltv-and-simulation-upgrade.md

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id, type, title, domain, repo, status, owner, topic_slug, created, updated, state_hub_workstream_id
id type title domain repo status owner topic_slug created updated state_hub_workstream_id
ADAPTIVE-WP-0005 workplan Comparable customer LTV and simulation upgrade financials adaptive-pricing backlog codex helix-forge 2026-07-02 2026-07-02 7fb6c58e-fabb-4e52-87d1-4a02984191ea

Comparable customer LTV and simulation upgrade

Upgrade the current observatory economics layer so pricing models can be compared using segment-aware, risk-aware seller economics rather than only the current-period Coulomb snapshot.

Define Comparable-Customer LTV Model

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T01
status: todo
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "2c6ff5b9-de47-46c1-aaa8-5e6e226f96d0"

Specify average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value, the reference-model selection logic, required-improvement semantics, and the data assumptions required for reliable estimates.

Extend Simulation Inputs

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T02
status: todo
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "fbf4e274-70ec-468f-988c-cbebeef304d2"

Extend the simulator beyond fixed member counts and hard-coded token assumptions to use segments, usage forecasts, churn/default risk, contract conditions, and commitment offsets.

Rework Pricing Comparison Outputs

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T03
status: todo
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "084bf0bb-5892-429e-bd8a-1f9edc273eb3"

Produce comparison outputs that can explain why one model is better for seller economics, what assumptions drive the outcome, and how sensitive the outcome is to forecast changes.

Calibrate With Coulomb Pilot Data

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T04
status: todo
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "9c60c8d2-7cd0-4035-92dc-cae8c4cd85d7"

Use the Coulomb observatory data and scenario fixtures to calibrate the first version of the comparison engine, while preserving its generic interface for other products.

Exit Criteria

id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T05
status: todo
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "fabd1f1b-d3b7-4bfb-a2fc-212ec31c5f31"

Exit when simulations can compare pricing models using an explicit LTV-oriented economic model with documented assumptions and test coverage.

Dependencies: ADAPTIVE-WP-0003, ADAPTIVE-WP-0004.