generated from coulomb/repo-seed
86 lines
2.2 KiB
Markdown
86 lines
2.2 KiB
Markdown
---
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005
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type: workplan
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title: "Comparable customer LTV and simulation upgrade"
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domain: financials
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repo: adaptive-pricing
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status: finished
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owner: codex
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topic_slug: helix-forge
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created: "2026-07-02"
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updated: "2026-07-02"
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state_hub_workstream_id: "7fb6c58e-fabb-4e52-87d1-4a02984191ea"
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---
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# Comparable customer LTV and simulation upgrade
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Upgrade the current observatory economics layer so pricing models can be
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compared using segment-aware, risk-aware seller economics rather than only the
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current-period Coulomb snapshot.
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## Define Comparable-Customer LTV Model
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T01
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status: done
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priority: high
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state_hub_task_id: "2c6ff5b9-de47-46c1-aaa8-5e6e226f96d0"
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```
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Specify `average_comparable_customer_lifetime_value`, the reference-model
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selection logic, required-improvement semantics, and the data assumptions
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required for reliable estimates.
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## Extend Simulation Inputs
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T02
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status: done
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priority: high
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state_hub_task_id: "fbf4e274-70ec-468f-988c-cbebeef304d2"
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```
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Extend the simulator beyond fixed member counts and hard-coded token assumptions
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to use segments, usage forecasts, churn/default risk, contract conditions, and
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commitment offsets.
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## Rework Pricing Comparison Outputs
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T03
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status: done
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priority: medium
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state_hub_task_id: "084bf0bb-5892-429e-bd8a-1f9edc273eb3"
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```
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Produce comparison outputs that can explain why one model is better for seller
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economics, what assumptions drive the outcome, and how sensitive the outcome is
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to forecast changes.
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## Calibrate With Coulomb Pilot Data
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T04
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status: done
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priority: medium
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state_hub_task_id: "9c60c8d2-7cd0-4035-92dc-cae8c4cd85d7"
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```
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Use the Coulomb observatory data and scenario fixtures to calibrate the first
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version of the comparison engine, while preserving its generic interface for
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other products.
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## Exit Criteria
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```task
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id: ADAPTIVE-WP-0005-T05
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status: done
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priority: medium
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state_hub_task_id: "fabd1f1b-d3b7-4bfb-a2fc-212ec31c5f31"
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```
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Exit when simulations can compare pricing models using an explicit LTV-oriented
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economic model with documented assumptions and test coverage.
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Dependencies: `ADAPTIVE-WP-0003`, `ADAPTIVE-WP-0004`.
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