identity-canon/research/commercial-identity/crm-pipeline-commitment-threshold.md

# CRM Pipeline and Commercial Commitment Threshold

## Source Type

Product data model and sales-operations synthesis. Salesforce Opportunity stages,
forecast categories, and contract-law binding thresholds.

## Domain

When CRM pipeline artifacts (Opportunity, deal stage, forecast) constitute
canonical **Commercial Commitment** vs. provisional pursuit evidence only.

## Why This Source Matters

Salesforce **Opportunity** tracks potential revenue — but most pipeline stages are
**forecasts**, not enforceable obligations. Treating every Opportunity as
Commercial Commitment would:

- falsely elevate identity binding during early prospecting;
- collide with **Counterparty Assurance Gradient** (pipeline ≠ committed tier);
- ignore that **Closed Won** often precedes executed contract in real orgs.

Canon needs a **promotion threshold** — when pipeline becomes commitment.

## Key Concepts

### Salesforce Opportunity model

- **Opportunity**: deal record tied to Account; amount, stage, close date, forecast.
- **Stage**: position in sales process (e.g., Prospecting → Proposal → Negotiation
  → Closed Won / Closed Lost).
- **Forecast category**: Pipeline, Best Case, Commit, Closed — revenue prediction
  semantics, not legal commitment.
- **Closed Won**: deal marked won in CRM — operational signal; may or may not
  coincide with signed contract depending on org process.
- **Closed Lost**: pursuit ended — no commitment.
- **Quote / Order** (CPQ): closer to binding when customer accepts quote or order
  is placed — stronger evidence than early stage.

### Binding threshold (legal/commercial)

A **Commercial Commitment** requires evidenced obligation that raises counterparty
reliance — aligned with canon definition and tier 3 assurance:

| Signal | Binding strength | Canon treatment |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Lead created | None | Pipeline Pursuit or weak Commercial Record |
| Opportunity Prospecting | None | Pipeline Pursuit |
| Opportunity Proposal | Low | Pipeline Pursuit + stage Evidence |
| Signed quote / LOI | Medium | Commercial Commitment `proposed` |
| Executed PO / order | High | Commercial Commitment `active` |
| Closed Won (CRM only) | Org-dependent | `proposed` until contract Evidence |
| Signed MSA / SOW | High | Commercial Commitment `active` |
| Active subscription (Stripe) | High | Commercial Commitment `active` (billing) |

**Rule:** CRM stage alone is **never sufficient** for `active` Commercial Commitment
unless org policy equates Closed Won with executed agreement **and** that policy
is recorded as Evidence Source (downstream configuration).

### Fluid-to-bound transition

Lead → Account conversion raises commercial attribution (Organization +
Commercial Record). Opportunity creation adds **Pipeline Pursuit**. Commitment
materializes only at binding trigger — not at Opportunity create.

## Modeling Assumptions

- **Pipeline is prospective** — counterparties may rely for forecasting internally
  but external legal reliance is limited until commitment artifacts exist.
- **Multiple Opportunities** per Account are normal; commitments may coexist.
- **Opportunity amount** is expected value, not obligation amount until contracted.
- **Forecast Commit category** (Salesforce) is sales-team confidence, not legal
  commitment — do not map to Commercial Commitment `active`.
- **CPQ Quote accepted** or **e-signature completed** are valid binding triggers
  with Evidence Source.

## Identity-Canon Implications

### Resolved: Opportunity is not Commercial Commitment by default

Map Salesforce **Opportunity** (and HubSpot deal, etc.) to **Pipeline Pursuit** —
Record layer artifact for in-flight commercial deal pursuit.

**Pipeline Pursuit** fields:

- `source_system` — Salesforce, HubSpot, etc.
- `stage` — vendor stage name (Prospecting, Negotiation, Closed Won, …)
- `forecast_category` — pipeline, best_case, commit, closed
- `expected_amount`, `expected_close_date`
- `linked_commercial_record` — CRM Account / Commercial Record
- `lifecycle_state` — open, won, lost, abandoned
- `binding_status` — `none` | `proposed` | `active` (derived from evidence, not stage alone)

### Promotion to Commercial Commitment

Create or activate **Commercial Commitment** only when `binding_trigger` satisfied:

| Trigger | Commitment state | Evidence |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Signed LOI / quote acceptance | `proposed` | Document, e-sign event |
| Executed PO / order | `active` | Order record |
| Closed Won + contract on file | `active` | Contract Evidence Source |
| Subscription checkout complete | `active` | Stripe webhook (billing) |
| Stage-only Closed Won | **No auto-promotion** | Pipeline Pursuit `won` only |

**Pipeline Pursuit** may **reference** a Commercial Commitment once promoted;
do not replace Opportunity with commitment in CRM adapters — mirror both.

### What Opportunity stage provides

Stage changes produce **Evidence Source** events on Pipeline Pursuit (observed
tier — internal sales telemetry). They support **Trust Relationship** only for
**internal** vendor forecasting, not external counterparty assurance at tier 3.

### Lead and Account (unchanged)

- **Lead** → provisional prospect (weak Commercial Record or Pipeline Pursuit seed).
- **Account** → **Commercial Record** + Organization.
- **Opportunity** → **Pipeline Pursuit** (not Commercial Commitment).

## Terminology Conflicts

- **Opportunity (CRM)** vs. **Commercial Commitment**: forecast vs. obligation.
- **Forecast Commit (Salesforce)** vs. **Commercial Commitment (canon)**: homonym disaster.
- **Closed Won** vs. **contract signed**: CRM ops vs. legal binding.
- **Deal (informal)** vs. **Pipeline Pursuit**: resolve to Pipeline Pursuit.

## Candidate Canonical Mappings

| CRM concept | Canonical mapping |
| --- | --- |
| Account | Commercial Record + Organization |
| Contact | Natural Person |
| Lead | Pipeline Pursuit (seed) / weak Commercial Record |
| Opportunity | Pipeline Pursuit |
| Stage change | Evidence Source on Pipeline Pursuit |
| Quote accepted | Commercial Commitment `proposed` |
| Order / contract executed | Commercial Commitment `active` |
| Closed Lost | Pipeline Pursuit lifecycle `lost` |
| Forecast category "Commit" | Pipeline Pursuit metadata only |

## Open Questions

*(none — settled in `commercial-identity-nuance-settlement.md`)*

## Settled

- `binding_trigger` enum — seven values including `org_policy_closed_won`.
- Renewal on same contract → commitment amendment; rebid → new Pipeline Pursuit.
- `pursuit_role`: customer | partner | vendor on Pipeline Pursuit.

## References

- Salesforce Opportunity object — https://developer.salesforce.com/docs/atlas.en-us.object_reference.meta/object_reference/sforce_api_objects_opportunity.htm
- Shellblack, Salesforce data model overview — https://www.shellblack.com/whiteboard/overview-of-leads-account-and-contacts-the-salesforce-data-model/
- Internal: `salesforce-crm-commercial-record.md`, `commercial-identity-synthesis.md`,
  `reputation-assurance-gradient.md`, `legal-person-agency-contract.md`