Implements markitect/llm/ package with concrete LLMAdapter implementations:
- OpenRouterAdapter: HTTP via urllib with retry/backoff on 429/5xx
- ClaudeCodeAdapter: subprocess-based Claude CLI with stdin piping
- Factory pattern: create_adapter("openrouter") or create_adapter("claude-code")
- API key resolution chain: constructor > env var > project-root key file
- 42 unit tests, 2 integration tests (gated on API key / CLI availability)
Also adds the infospace-with-history example with Wealth of Nations VSM
analysis pipeline, templates, schemas, source chapters, and processed
output for chapters 1-2. process_chapters.py now supports --provider
and --model flags for automatic LLM-driven processing.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.6 <noreply@anthropic.com>
397 lines
27 KiB
Markdown
397 lines
27 KiB
Markdown
---
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id: book-1-chapter-09
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title: "OF THE PROFITS OF STOCK."
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book: "1"
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chapter: 9
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artifact_type: content
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---
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CHAPTER IX.
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OF THE PROFITS OF STOCK.
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The rise and fall in the profits of stock depend upon the same causes with
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the rise and fall in the wages of labour, the increasing or declining
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state of the wealth of the society; but those causes affect the one and
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the other very differently.
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The increase of stock, which raises wages, tends to lower profit. When the
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stocks of many rich merchants are turned into the same trade, their mutual
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competition naturally tends to lower its profit; and when there is a like
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increase of stock in all the different trades carried on in the same
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society, the same competition must produce the same effect in them all.
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It is not easy, it has already been observed, to ascertain what are the
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average wages of labour, even in a particular place, and at a particular
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time. We can, even in this case, seldom determine more than what are the
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most usual wages. But even this can seldom be done with regard to the
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profits of stock. Profit is so very fluctuating, that the person who
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carries on a particular trade, cannot always tell you himself what is the
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average of his annual profit. It is affected, not only by every variation
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of price in the commodities which he deals in, but by the good or bad
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fortune both of his rivals and of his customers, and by a thousand other
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accidents, to which goods, when carried either by sea or by land, or even
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when stored in a warehouse, are liable. It varies, therefore, not only
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from year to year, but from day to day, and almost from hour to hour. To
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ascertain what is the average profit of all the different trades carried
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on in a great kingdom, must be much more difficult; and to judge of what
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it may have been formerly, or in remote periods of time, with any degree
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of precision, must be altogether impossible.
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But though it may be impossible to determine, with any degree of
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precision, what are or were the average profits of stock, either in the
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present or in ancient times, some notion may be formed of them from the
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interest of money. It may be laid down as a maxim, that wherever a great
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deal can be made by the use of money, a great deal will commonly be given
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for the use of it; and that, wherever little can be made by it, less will
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commonly he given for it. Accordingly, therefore, as the usual market rate
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of interest varies in any country, we may be assured that the ordinary
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profits of stock must vary with it, must sink as it sinks, and rise as it
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rises. The progress of interest, therefore, may lead us to form some
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notion of the progress of profit.
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By the 37th of Henry VIII. all interest above ten per cent. was declared
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unlawful. More, it seems, had sometimes been taken before that. In the
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reign of Edward VI. religious zeal prohibited all interest. This
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prohibition, however, like all others of the same kind, is said to have
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produced no effect, and probably rather increased than diminished the evil
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of usury. The statute of Henry VIII. was revived by the 13th of Elizabeth,
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cap. 8. and ten per cent. continued to be the legal rate of interest till
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the 21st of James I. when it was restricted to eight per cent. It was
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reduced to six per cent. soon after the Restoration, and by the 12th of
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Queen Anne, to five per cent. All these different statutory regulations
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seem to have been made with great propriety. They seem to have followed,
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and not to have gone before, the market rate of interest, or the rate at
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which people of good credit usually borrowed. Since the time of Queen
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Anne, five per cent. seems to have been rather above than below the market
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rate. Before the late war, the government borrowed at three per cent.; and
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people of good credit in the capital, and in many other parts of the
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kingdom, at three and a-half, four, and four and a-half per cent.
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Since the time of Henry VIII. the wealth and revenue of the country have
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been continually advancing, and in the course of their progress, their
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pace seems rather to have been gradually accelerated than retarded. They
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seem not only to have been going on, but to have been going on faster and
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faster. The wages of labour have been continually increasing during the
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same period, and, in the greater part of the different branches of trade
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and manufactures, the profits of stock have been diminishing.
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It generally requires a greater stock to carry on any sort of trade in a
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great town than in a country village. The great stocks employed in every
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branch of trade, and the number of rich competitors, generally reduce the
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rate of profit in the former below what it is in the latter. But the wages
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of labour are generally higher in a great town than in a country village.
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In a thriving town, the people who have great stocks to employ, frequently
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cannot get the number of workmen they want, and therefore bid against one
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another, in order to get as many as they can, which raises the wages of
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labour, and lowers the profits of stock. In the remote parts of the
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country, there is frequently not stock sufficient to employ all the
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people, who therefore bid against one another, in order to get employment,
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which lowers the wages of labour, and raises the profits of stock.
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In Scotland, though the legal rate of interest is the same as in England,
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the market rate is rather higher. People of the best credit there seldom
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borrow under five per cent. Even private bankers in Edinburgh give four
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per cent. upon their promissory-notes, of which payment, either in whole
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or in part may be demanded at pleasure. Private bankers in London give no
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interest for the money which is deposited with them. There are few trades
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which cannot be carried on with a smaller stock in Scotland than in
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England. The common rate of profit, therefore, must be somewhat greater.
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The wages of labour, it has already been observed, are lower in Scotland
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than in England. The country, too, is not only much poorer, but the steps
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by which it advances to a better condition, for it is evidently advancing,
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seem to be much slower and more tardy. The legal rate of interest in
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France has not during the course of the present century, been always
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regulated by the market rate {See Denisart, Article Taux des Interests,
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tom. iii, p.13}. In 1720, interest was reduced from the twentieth to the
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fiftieth penny, or from five to two per cent. In 1724, it was raised to
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the thirtieth penny, or to three and a third per cent. In 1725, it was
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again raised to the twentieth penny, or to five per cent. In 1766, during
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the administration of Mr Laverdy, it was reduced to the twenty-fifth
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penny, or to four per cent. The Abbé Terray raised it afterwards to the
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old rate of five per cent. The supposed purpose of many of those violent
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reductions of interest was to prepare the way for reducing that of the
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public debts; a purpose which has sometimes been executed. France is,
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perhaps, in the present times, not so rich a country as England; and
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though the legal rate of interest has in France frequently been lower than
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in England, the market rate has generally been higher; for there, as in
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other countries, they have several very safe and easy methods of evading
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the law. The profits of trade, I have been assured by British merchants
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who had traded in both countries, are higher in France than in England;
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and it is no doubt upon this account, that many British subjects chuse
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rather to employ their capitals in a country where trade is in disgrace,
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than in one where it is highly respected. The wages of labour are lower in
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France than in England. When you go from Scotland to England, the
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difference which you may remark between the dress and countenance of the
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common people in the one country and in the other, sufficiently indicates
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the difference in their condition. The contrast is still greater when you
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return from France. France, though no doubt a richer country than
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Scotland, seems not to be going forward so fast. It is a common and even a
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popular opinion in the country, that it is going backwards; an opinion
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which I apprehend, is ill-founded, even with regard to France, but which
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nobody can possibly entertain with regard to Scotland, who sees the
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country now, and who saw it twenty or thirty years ago.
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The province of Holland, on the other hand, in proportion to the extent of
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its territory and the number of its people, is a richer country than
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England. The government there borrow at two per cent. and private people
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of good credit at three. The wages of labour are said to be higher in
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Holland than in England, and the Dutch, it is well known, trade upon lower
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profits than any people in Europe. The trade of Holland, it has been
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pretended by some people, is decaying, and it may perhaps be true that
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some particular branches of it are so; but these symptoms seem to indicate
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sufficiently that there is no general decay. When profit diminishes,
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merchants are very apt to complain that trade decays, though the
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diminution of profit is the natural effect of its prosperity, or of a
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greater stock being employed in it than before. During the late war, the
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Dutch gained the whole carrying trade of France, of which they still
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retain a very large share. The great property which they possess both in
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French and English funds, about forty millions, it is said in the latter
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(in which, I suspect, however, there is a considerable exaggeration ), the
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great sums which they lend to private people, in countries where the rate
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of interest is higher than in their own, are circumstances which no doubt
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demonstrate the redundancy of their stock, or that it has increased beyond
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what they can employ with tolerable profit in the proper business of their
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own country; but they do not demonstrate that that business has decreased.
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As the capital of a private man, though acquired by a particular trade,
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may increase beyond what he can employ in it, and yet that trade continue
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to increase too, so may likewise the capital of a great nation.
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In our North American and West Indian colonies, not only the wages of
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labour, but the interest of money, and consequently the profits of stock,
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are higher than in England. In the different colonies, both the legal and
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the market rate of interest run from six to eight percent. High wages of
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labour and high profits of stock, however, are things, perhaps, which
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scarce ever go together, except in the peculiar circumstances of new
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colonies. A new colony must always, for some time, be more understocked in
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proportion to the extent of its territory, and more underpeopled in
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proportion to the extent of its stock, than the greater part of other
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countries. They have more land than they have stock to cultivate. What
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they have, therefore, is applied to the cultivation only of what is most
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fertile and most favourably situated, the land near the sea-shore, and
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along the banks of navigable rivers. Such land, too, is frequently
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purchased at a price below the value even of its natural produce. Stock
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employed in the purchase and improvement of such lands, must yield a very
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large profit, and, consequently, afford to pay a very large interest. Its
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rapid accumulation in so profitable an employment enables the planter to
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increase the number of his hands faster than he can find them in a new
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settlement. Those whom he can find, therefore, are very liberally
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rewarded. As the colony increases, the profits of stock gradually
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diminish. When the most fertile and best situated lands have been all
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occupied, less profit can be made by the cultivation of what is inferior
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both in soil and situation, and less interest can be afforded for the
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stock which is so employed. In the greater part of our colonies,
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accordingly, both the legal and the market rate of interest have been
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considerably reduced during the course of the present century. As riches,
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improvement, and population, have increased, interest has declined. The
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wages of labour do not sink with the profits of stock. The demand for
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labour increases with the increase of stock, whatever be its profits; and
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after these are diminished, stock may not only continue to increase, but
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to increase much faster than before. It is with industrious nations, who
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are advancing in the acquisition of riches, as with industrious
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individuals. A great stock, though with small profits, generally increases
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faster than a small stock with great profits. Money, says the proverb,
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makes money. When you have got a little, it is often easy to get more. The
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great difficulty is to get that little. The connection between the
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increase of stock and that of industry, or of the demand for useful
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labour, has partly been explained already, but will be explained more
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fully hereafter, in treating of the accumulation of stock.
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The acquisition of new territory, or of new branches of trade, may
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sometimes raise the profits of stock, and with them the interest of money,
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even in a country which is fast advancing in the acquisition of riches.
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The stock of the country, not being sufficient for the whole accession of
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business which such acquisitions present to the different people among
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whom it is divided, is applied to those particular branches only which
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afford the greatest profit. Part of what had before been employed in other
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trades, is necessarily withdrawn from them, and turned into some of the
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new and more profitable ones. In all those old trades, therefore, the
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competition comes to be less than before. The market comes to be less
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fully supplied with many different sorts of goods. Their price necessarily
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rises more or less, and yields a greater profit to those who deal in them,
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who can, therefore, afford to borrow at a higher interest. For some time
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after the conclusion of the late war, not only private people of the best
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credit, but some of the greatest companies in London, commonly borrowed at
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five per cent. who, before that, had not been used to pay more than four,
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and four and a half per cent. The great accession both of territory and
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trade by our acquisitions in North America and the West Indies, will
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sufficiently account for this, without supposing any diminution in the
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capital stock of the society. So great an accession of new business to be
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carried on by the old stock, must necessarily have diminished the quantity
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employed in a great number of particular branches, in which the
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competition being less, the profits must have been greater. I shall
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hereafter have occasion to mention the reasons which dispose me to believe
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that the capital stock of Great Britain was not diminished, even by the
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enormous expense of the late war.
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The diminution of the capital stock of the society, or of the funds
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destined for the maintenance of industry, however, as it lowers the wages
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of labour, so it raises the profits of stock, and consequently the
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interest of money. By the wages of labour being lowered, the owners of
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what stock remains in the society can bring their goods at less expense to
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market than before; and less stock being employed in supplying the market
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than before, they can sell them dearer. Their goods cost them less, and
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they get more for them. Their profits, therefore, being augmented at both
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ends, can well afford a large interest. The great fortunes so suddenly and
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so easily acquired in Bengal and the other British settlements in the East
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Indies, may satisfy us, that as the wages of labour are very low, so the
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profits of stock are very high in those ruined countries. The interest of
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money is proportionably so. In Bengal, money is frequently lent to the
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farmers at forty, fifty, and sixty per cent. and the succeeding crop is
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mortgaged for the payment. As the profits which can afford such an
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interest must eat up almost the whole rent of the landlord, so such
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enormous usury must in its turn eat up the greater part of those profits.
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Before the fall of the Roman republic, a usury of the same kind seems to
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have been common in the provinces, under the ruinous administration of
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their proconsuls. The virtuous Brutus lent money in Cyprus at
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eight-and-forty per cent. as we learn from the letters of Cicero.
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In a country which had acquired that full complement of riches which the
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nature of its soil and climate, and its situation with respect to other
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countries, allowed it to acquire, which could, therefore, advance no
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further, and which was not going backwards, both the wages of labour and
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the profits of stock would probably be very low. In a country fully
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peopled in proportion to what either its territory could maintain, or its
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stock employ, the competition for employment would necessarily be so great
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as to reduce the wages of labour to what was barely sufficient to keep up
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the number of labourers, and the country being already fully peopled, that
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number could never be augmented. In a country fully stocked in proportion
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to all the business it had to transact, as great a quantity of stock would
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be employed in every particular branch as the nature and extent of the
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trade would admit. The competition, therefore, would everywhere be as
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great, and, consequently, the ordinary profit as low as possible.
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But, perhaps, no country has ever yet arrived at this degree of opulence.
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China seems to have been long stationary, and had, probably, long ago
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acquired that full complement of riches which is consistent with the
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nature of its laws and institutions. But this complement may be much
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inferior to what, with other laws and institutions, the nature of its
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soil, climate, and situation, might admit of. A country which neglects or
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despises foreign commerce, and which admits the vessel of foreign nations
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into one or two of its ports only, cannot transact the same quantity of
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business which it might do with different laws and institutions. In a
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country, too, where, though the rich, or the owners of large capitals,
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enjoy a good deal of security, the poor, or the owners of small capitals,
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enjoy scarce any, but are liable, under the pretence of justice, to be
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pillaged and plundered at any time by the inferior mandarins, the quantity
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of stock employed in all the different branches of business transacted
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within it, can never be equal to what the nature and extent of that
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business might admit. In every different branch, the oppression of the
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poor must establish the monopoly of the rich, who, by engrossing the whole
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trade to themselves, will be able to make very large profits. Twelve per
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cent. accordingly, is said to be the common interest of money in China,
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and the ordinary profits of stock must be sufficient to afford this large
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interest.
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A defect in the law may sometimes raise the rate of interest considerably
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above what the condition of the country, as to wealth or poverty, would
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require. When the law does not enforce the performance of contracts, it
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puts all borrowers nearly upon the same footing with bankrupts, or people
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of doubtful credit, in better regulated countries. The uncertainty of
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recovering his money makes the lender exact the same usurious interest
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which is usually required from bankrupts. Among the barbarous nations who
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overran the western provinces of the Roman empire, the performance of
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contracts was left for many ages to the faith of the contracting parties.
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The courts of justice of their kings seldom intermeddled in it. The high
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rate of interest which took place in those ancient times, may, perhaps, be
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partly accounted for from this cause.
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When the law prohibits interest altogether, it does not prevent it. Many
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people must borrow, and nobody will lend without such a consideration for
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the use of their money as is suitable, not only to what can be made by the
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use of it, but to the difficulty and danger of evading the law. The high
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rate of interest among all Mahometan nations is accounted for by M.
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Montesquieu, not from their poverty, but partly from this, and partly from
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the difficulty of recovering the money.
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The lowest ordinary rate of profit must always be something more than what
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is sufficient to compensate the occasional losses to which every
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employment of stock is exposed. It is this surplus only which is neat or
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clear profit. What is called gross profit, comprehends frequently not only
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this surplus, but what is retained for compensating such extraordinary
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losses. The interest which the borrower can afford to pay is in proportion
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to the clear profit only. The lowest ordinary rate of interest must, in
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the same manner, be something more than sufficient to compensate the
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occasional losses to which lending, even with tolerable prudence, is
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exposed. Were it not, mere charity or friendship could be the only motives
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for lending.
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In a country which had acquired its full complement of riches, where, in
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every particular branch of business, there was the greatest quantity of
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stock that could be employed in it, as the ordinary rate of clear profit
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would be very small, so the usual market rate of interest which could be
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afforded out of it would be so low as to render it impossible for any but
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the very wealthiest people to live upon the interest of their money. All
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people of small or middling fortunes would be obliged to superintend
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themselves the employment of their own stocks. It would be necessary that
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almost every man should be a man of business, or engage in some sort of
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trade. The province of Holland seems to be approaching near to this state.
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It is there unfashionable not to be a man of business. Necessity makes it
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usual for almost every man to be so, and custom everywhere regulates
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fashion. As it is ridiculous not to dress, so is it, in some measure, not
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to be employed like other people. As a man of a civil profession seems
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awkward in a camp or a garrison, and is even in some danger of being
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despised there, so does an idle man among men of business.
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The highest ordinary rate of profit may be such as, in the price of the
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greater part of commodities, eats up the whole of what should go to the
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rent of the land, and leaves only what is sufficient to pay the labour of
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preparing and bringing them to market, according to the lowest rate at
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which labour can anywhere be paid, the bare subsistence of the labourer.
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The workman must always have been fed in some way or other while he was
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about the work, but the landlord may not always have been paid. The
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profits of the trade which the servants of the East India Company carry on
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in Bengal may not, perhaps, be very far from this rate.
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The proportion which the usual market rate of interest ought to bear to
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the ordinary rate of clear profit, necessarily varies as profit rises or
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falls. Double interest is in Great Britain reckoned what the merchants
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call a good, moderate, reasonable profit; terms which, I apprehend, mean
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no more than a common and usual profit. In a country where the ordinary
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rate of clear profit is eight or ten per cent. it may be reasonable that
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one half of it should go to interest, wherever business is carried on with
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borrowed money. The stock is at the risk of the borrower, who, as it were,
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insures it to the lender; and four or five per cent. may, in the greater
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part of trades, be both a sufficient profit upon the risk of this
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insurance, and a sufficient recompence for the trouble of employing the
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stock. But the proportion between interest and clear profit might not be
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the same in countries where the ordinary rate of profit was either a good
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deal lower, or a good deal higher. If it were a good deal lower, one half
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of it, perhaps, could not be afforded for interest; and more might be
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afforded if it were a good deal higher.
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In countries which are fast advancing to riches, the low rate of profit
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may, in the price of many commodities, compensate the high wages of
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labour, and enable those countries to sell as cheap as their less thriving
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neighbours, among whom the wages of labour may be lower.
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In reality, high profits tend much more to raise the price of work than
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high wages. If, in the linen manufacture, for example, the wages of the
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different working people, the flax-dressers, the spinners, the weavers,
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etc. should all of them be advanced twopence a-day, it would be necessary
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to heighten the price of a piece of linen only by a number of twopences
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equal to the number of people that had been employed about it, multiplied
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by the number of days during which they had been so employed. That part of
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the price of the commodity which resolved itself into the wages, would,
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through all the different stages of the manufacture, rise only in
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arithmetical proportion to this rise of wages. But if the profits of all
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the different employers of those working people should be raised five per
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cent. that part of the price of the commodity which resolved itself into
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profit would, through all the different stages of the manufacture, rise in
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geometrical proportion to this rise of profit. The employer of the flax
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dressers would, in selling his flax, require an additional five per cent.
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upon the whole value of the materials and wages which he advanced to his
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workmen. The employer of the spinners would require an additional five per
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cent. both upon the advanced price of the flax, and upon the wages of the
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spinners. And the employer of the weavers would require alike five per
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cent. both upon the advanced price of the linen-yarn, and upon the wages
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of the weavers. In raising the price of commodities, the rise of wages
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operates in the same manner as simple interest does in the accumulation of
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debt. The rise of profit operates like compound interest. Our merchants
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and master manufacturers complain much of the bad effects of high wages in
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raising the price, and thereby lessening the sale of their goods, both at
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home and abroad. They say nothing concerning the bad effects of high
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profits; they are silent with regard to the pernicious effects of their
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own gains; they complain only of those of other people.
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